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Midway Through The 2024-2025 Season

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We’re at the midway point of the 2024-2025 NHL regular season so what better time to look at my predictions and see how close I am at the halfway point.

A lot can change from the midway point. You will be reminded of this constantly by the Toronto sports media remembering the St. Louis Blues going from bottom of the league to a playoff spot to the Stanley Cup. The media loves stuff like this. Make sure to tune in for the playoffs where someone will see a 1/8 matchup and remind everyone that the Los Angeles Kings won the Stanley Cup as an 8th seed. Good stuff!

Let me start off with something I was so correct on, I wasn’t correct enough on. I stated that the Atlantic division between 5-8 would be separated by less than eight points. I said it would be a bloodbath and the most competitive division in the league.

Turns out I was very conservative there. 5-8 is currently separated by six points in the Atlantic. 3-8 is only separated by 10 points. Meanwhile in the Metropolitan, 4-7 is separated by only four points. And yes, that means the east is incredibly tight. 6th in the East (Boston as of January 8) is only separated by 5 points with 12th (Detroit.) If I go by my original “less than eight points” prediction, the Eastern conference between 6th and 14th is separated by only 7 points. People have been calling the New York Rangers, who sit in 14th, a complete disaster. They are only four wins away from jumping the Bruins. Four!

I’m already talking about them so this time I’ll begin with the Eastern Conference.

Eastern Conference

I of course look like a dork because I had the Rangers winning the Metro but hey, not a lot of people predicted the downfall of the Rags. I was, however, correct that the Washington Capitals would be a top three team in their division, and was correct Detroit and Buffalo would be at the bottom of the Atlantic.

Metropolitan Division

Current Standings as of January 8, 2025

1. Washington Capitals (56 in 40)
2. New Jersey Devils (53 in 43)
3. Carolina Hurricanes (50 in 41)
4. Columbus Blue Jackets (42 in 41)
5. Pittsburgh Penguins (42 in 42)
6. Philadelphia Flyers (39 in 41)
7. New York Rangers (38 in 40)
8. New York Islanders (37 in 40)

My Predicted Standings

1. New York Rangers (-6)
2. Carolina Hurricanes (-1)
3. Washington Capitals (+2)
4. New Jersey Devils (+2)
5. Philadelphia Flyers (-1)
6. New York Islanders (-2)
7. Columbus Blue Jackets (+3)
8. Pittsburgh Penguins (+3)

When the season started Pittsburgh looked terrible and I looked to be right on them, but they were able to turn things around with NASHVILLE HELPS EVERYONE. I’ll explain that in a second.

The Metro at least has three teams at the top who I expect to stay there in Washinton, New Jersey, and Carolina. I doubt they move much from that either. That’s likely to stay the top three of the Metro. Everyone else, from fourth to eighth, will be competing with Atlantic teams for the wildcard spots.

I said the Atlantic was going to be a bloodbath. Nah, it’s the Eastern Conference wildcard race. Teams are going to miss by one point. Heck, some teams might tie in points and lose a playoff spot from a tiebreaker. It’s going to look real ugly for a lot of teams.

Atlantic Division

Current Standings as of January 8, 2025

1. Toronto Maple Leafs (56 in 42)
2. Florida Panthers (50 in 41)
3. Boston Bruins (45 in 43)
4. Tampa Bay Lightning (44 in 38)
5. Ottawa Senators (41 in 39)
6. Montreal Canadiens (41 in 40)
7. Detroit Red Wings (40 in 40)
8. Buffalo Sabres (35 in 41)

My Predicted Standings

1. Florida Panthers (-1)
2. Toronto Maple Leafs (+1)
3. Boston Bruins
4. Tampa Bay Lightning
5. Ottawa Senators
6. Montreal Canadiens
7. Buffalo Sabres (-1)
8. Detroit Red Wings (+1)

I got 4 out of 8 correct so far, and would be 8/8 if 1/2 and 7/8 flipped. Do I know my stuff or do I know my stuff?

Toronto has looked great in the past month despite Auston Matthews being injured at times. I am pretty confident in Toronto and Florida staying top two. Unlike the Metro? I think that third place might be up for grabs.

3rd and 7th are split by 5 points. Remember, Boston has played the most games in the division while everyone underneath is 2-3 games behind (Tampa is for some reason 5 games behind the Bruins) and any of these could change week to week.

Boston struggled early in the year but eventually got their shit together. Tampa Bay has been Tampa Bay. The Ottawa Senators also had some early struggles, then Linus Ullmark was unstoppable, and now he’s on injured reserve.

The three hottest teams in the division lately are the Toronto Maple Leafs, Detroit Red Wings, and Montreal Canadiens. Detroit was at one point absolutely crapping the bed but after beating the Capitals, Penguins, Blue Jackets, Jets, and Senators? They’ve been able to keep up with everyone.

Now my Montreal Canadiens. My beautiful Montreal Canadiens. On November 30th, 2024, the Montreal Canadiens were 8-12-3 with 19 points. That’s bottom of the Eastern Conference and 31st in the league. On January 8, 2025 they are 19-18-3 with 41 points. That’s only a point outside a playoff spot (I should have wrote this before the games last night, I could have called them in a playoff spot) and while it doesn’t look good at 6th in the division, they are a point ahead of the Red Wings with the same amount of games, Ottawa has the same amount of wins but has played one less game with one less loss, and the Blue Jackets and Penguins are both at 42 points for the final wildcard with Columbus having the better win percentage. You see how tight things are?

So how did Montreal turn the ship around? It starts with Patrik Laine. Laine got injured in exhibition and was out until December 3rd. He scored 8 goals in 10 games with two game winners. But the big change came on December 20th. Remember what I said about NASHVILLE HELPS EVERYONE? Time to get into it before I even talk the Central.

Nashville Helps Everyone

Columbus Blue Jackets: On November 10, 2024, the Columbus Blue Jackets claimed Dante Fabbro off waivers from the Nashville Predators. Fabbro, a right handed defenceman drafed 17th overall in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft, had zero points and a -3 in six games.

Columbus was tied for bottom of the Metropolitan Division with 12 points. Fabbro has put up 9 points in 25 games for Columbus and is a +12. He would be leading the Predators in plus minus if he was still on the club. Columbus is now 4th in the Metro and fighting for a wildcard spot. Thanks Nashville!

Colorado Avalanche: On November 30th, 2024, the Nashville Predators traded Scott Wedgewood to the Colorado Avalanche for Justus Annunen and a 2025 sixth round pick.

Colorado was 13-12-0 at the time of the trade, having lost their last two games sitting in 4th in the Central. Colorado is still fourth since the trade, but now are 25-15-1. They only lost four games (one in OT/SO) since the trade. While much of their success was due to Mackenzie Blackwood, Wedgewood has posted 4 wins with a .917 save percentage compared to the 1 win and .878 he had in Nashville.

Annunen has actually been decent for Nashville and improved from his time in Colorado, posting three wins with a .930 save percentage. In Colorado he had six wins in 9 starts and a .872 save percentage. While this trade did help both teams out and both players are progressing in their new cities, it’s pretty clear Colorado has prospered since the deal unlike Nashville. Thanks Nashville!

Pittsburgh Penguins: On November 25, 2024, the Nashville Predators traded Philip Tomasino to the Pittsburgh Penguins for a fourth round pick in 2027. Tomasino was a first round pick, 24th overall in 2019. He had one point in 11 games with Nashville at the time.

Pittsburgh was bottom of the Metro with a 7-12-4 record for 18 points. Tomasino has put up 7 points in 16 games, respectable middle six wing numbers. Pittsburgh has improved to 17-17-8 since the trade. Thanks Nashville!

Montreal Canadiens: On December 18th, 2024, the Nashville Predators traded Alexandre Carrier to the Montreal Canadiens for Justin Barron. The Predators had just signed Carrier over the summer to a three year contract for $3.75M per season. No money was retained in the trade. He had 7 points in 28 games and a -14 with Nashville at the time.

Montreal was 7th in the Atlantic witth a 12-16-3 record for 27 points. Carrier has put up 5 assists in 9 games and is a +2. Montreal has been 7-2-0 since adding Carrier to the lineup. Nashville was 9-17-6 when they traded Carrier. They are now 13-21-7 and Barron has put up no points with a -3 playing the same amount of minutes he did in Nashville he did in Montreal. I guess at least the Predators saved some money? Thanks Nashville!

What have we learned? Make sure to trade with the Nashville Predators while Barry Trotz is the General Manager. Not sure yet how the Pavel for Parssinen trade goes for Nashville and Colorado since Pavel has mostly played in the AHL, but Parssinen does have one assist in four games for Colorado Avalanche as a fourth line centre. So maybe Thanks Nashville?

Western Conference

The West I’ve mostly been good on, with only a few teams tripping me up.

Pacific Division

Current Standings as of January 8, 2025

1. Vegas Golden Knights (59 in 40)
2. Edmonton Oilers (53 in 40)
3. Los Angeles Kings (51 in 38)
4. Vancouver Canucks (45 in 39)
5. Calgary Flames (45 in 40)
6. Anaheim Ducks (39 in 40)
7. Seattle Kraken (37 in 41)
8. San Jose Sharks (32 in 43)

My Predicted Standings

1. Vancouver Canucks (-3)
2. Vegas Golden Knights (+1)
3. Edmonton Oilers (+1)
4. Seattle Kraken (-3)
5. Los Angeles Kings (+2)
6. Calgary Flames (+1)
7. San Jose Sharks (-1)
8. Anaheim Ducks (+2)

So I had more faith in the Canucks and Kraken than I should have. Otherwise everything is pretty close. The Kings I was very much wrong on and they’ve been top three in the division for over a month now. I should have stuck with my gut on the Canucks. I put them first and said I didn’t have confidence in them. I should have said nah, I should hate, and drop them out of the top three. But no.

Beniers has not bounced back from his sophomore slump. 22 points in 41 games. Meanwhile Shane Wright finally looks ready for the NHL with 18 points in 38 games. Seattle needs better from both. Daccord I was right on at least. He’s clearly their new starter.

What’s funny is the Canadian media keeps talking up the Flames like they are doing great and in the playoff race and they are essentially where I thought they’d be. Sure, they will be playing for a wildcard spot, but I was confident they would but miss.

Central Division

Current Standings as of January 8, 2025

1. Winnipeg Jets (58 in 42)
2. Minnesota Wild (56 in 41)
3. Dallas Stars (51 in 39)
4. Colorado Avalanche (51 in 41)
5. St. Louis Blues (42 in 42)
6. Utah (41 in 39)
7. Nashville Predators (33 in 41)
8. Chicago Blackhawks (28 in 40)

My Predicted Standings

1. Dallas Stars (-2)
2. Colorado Avalanche (-2)
3. Nashville Predators (-4)
4. Winnipeg Jets (+3)
5. Minnesota Wild (+3)
6. Utah
7. St. Louis Blues (-2)
8. Chicago Blackhawks

Hey I got two on the button!

I said the Colorado Avalanche needed better goaltending. They replaced their starter and backup. It has been good for them. It’s still funny to me that it was the New Jersey Devils platoon just a few years ago.

I predicted the Nashville Predators to do great. I said more should talk about Gustav Nyquist. He’s got 17 points in 40 games. That’s the last time I ever put my faith in Barry Trotz. Someone should trade for Colton Sissons. He’s currently playing on the Predators fourth line and makes $2.857M with one more season, can play centre or wing, and I think would rebound in a new city. He had 35 points last season with 15 goals. I bet he rebounds into that on a better team.

I ripped on the Jets and they might win the President’s Trophy. C’est la vie.

I should have trusted that person on Twitter who had the Wild in the top three. They knew what they were talking about. I clearly did not.

I was right at least that Chicago is still very far from getting out of the basement.

Second Half of the Season Predictions

Okay, here are my five big predictions for the rest of the season!

1. Montreal will either secure a playoff spot (3rd in Atlantic or one of the two wildcard spots) or finish less than three points out of a playoff spot. I think their turnaround is for real. They’ve been winning games since Laine returned, and then started winning without him. If Laine stays healthy, Habs keep Jake Evans, and maybe they add a player at the deadline? I think they get very close to making the playoffs or they make it.

2. Alex Ovechkin breaks Wayne Gretzky’s regular season goal total this season. Ovechkin currently has 19 goals. He needs 23 more goals to have 895. Since coming back from injury he has four goals in six games. I got faith in him finishing the season with at least 42 goals. Heck, I’ll go one further. He scores 47 and finishes the season at 900 NHL goals.

3. J.T. Miller gets traded to the New York Rangers by the NHL trade deadline. I just saw Miller and the Vancouver Canucks against the Habs the other day. Miller was a beast with four points and a +3, just a fantastic player that night. He has 8 points in 5 games and is basically leading the Canucks dealing with injuries to Pettersson, Joshua, and Hronek. The word is that Pettersson and Miller can’t get along, and Miller would waive for the Rangers. The Rangers could fit Miller in their cap without taking anything back, but they also need to provide something to Vancouver to accept such a deal. Both Zibanejad and Trocheck have no movement clauses, with Zibanejad clearly struggling.

Rangers already traded one struggling high drafted player in Kaapo Kakko to the Seattle Kraken for Will Borgen and picks. The former 2nd overall pick in 2019 has five points in 8 games with Seattle. I think the Canucks target Filip Chytil, who costs $4.4M and had 17 points in 33 games. Something around Chytil and Braden Schneider for Miller? That’s my guess. Rangers could then play Miller (or Zib) at wing if they needed to, or roll three big lines with three top six centres.

4. Lane Hutson does not win the Calder Trophy. Yes yes another Habs prediction. Hutson right now leads rookies in scoring despite being a defenceman. By the end of the year I expect Michkov, Celebrini, and Stankoven all up there at the top of rookie scoring. One of those three will be nominated. The next guy nominated will be Dustin Wolf, who is the best rookie goalie right now. He gets a spot. The third spot goes to Hutson. Hutson will likely stay in the top five of rookie scoring, plays top minutes as a defenceman, and should be considered up there with other rookie Calder winners like Moritz Seider and Cale Makar. I still think voters will be inclined to hold his “all offence bad defence” reputation against him, even if he has improved as a blueliner since his first season. I hope I’m wrong because I’d love to see the first Calder trophy winning Hab since Ken Dryden.

5. Mitch Marner re-signs with the Toronto Maple Leafs before the season is over. It would be way more fun if Marner didn’t re-sign and went to free agency but I feel like the Leafs management will offer Marner a better deal than he can get anywhere else while still playing for a playoff team and he takes it. He’s already making $10.9M, Matthews is getting $13.2M and Nylander $11.5M, I would not be shocked to see Marner sign for eight years at under $13M so everyone can claim he took a discount to stay and he’s too good to lose.

Anyway, that’s the progress on my predictions. We will see at the end of the season if anything adjusts to being more correct for me or more incorrect. Thanks for reading!

 

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AWAW Aaron Wrotkowski 2024