Happy New Year!

We’re essentially at the midway point of the 25-26 NHL season with some teams having played 42 games. We also got a few teams who are still at the 38 game mark but I’m not going to wait up for everyone.

If you need some sort of sign of how fast things can change from month to month, the Buffalo Sabres were being talked about as once again blowing their season and having to fire everyone. And then they went on a 10 game winning streak. They are now close to a playoff spot. As if the Atlantic needed things to be tighter.

Read the 2025-2026 Likely Wrong NHL Predictions

I had some bad predictions to start the season and now I’m going to see just how I’m doing on my predictions. Let’s get it!

Western Conference

Let’s start with the West.

Pacific Division

Current Standings as of January 4th, 2026

1. Edmonton Oilers (46 points in 42 games)
2. Vegas Golden Knights (45 points in 39 games)
3. Anaheim Ducks (45 points in 41 games)
4. Seattle Kraken (43 points in 39 games)
5. Los Angeles Kings (43 points in 40 games)
6. San Jose Sharks (43 points in 41 games)
7. Calgary Flames (40 points in 41 games)
8. Vancouver Canucks (37 points in 41 games)

My Predicted Standings

1. Vegas Golden Knights (-1)
2. Edmonton Oilers (+1)
3. Los Angeles Kings (-2)
4. Calgary Flames (-3)
5. Vancouver Canucks (-3)
6. Seattle Kraken (+2)
7. Anaheim Ducks (+4)
8. San Jose Sharks (+2)

I once again had way too much confidence in Canadian teams and not enough in the California teams. At least the two I thought would be in the basement. I gave a lot of credit to the Ducks on the changes they made but said they would be big questions. Well they are answering the questions. Ducks look very good.

The San Jose Sharks I’ve long believed are going to be a contender by the end of the decade but they are moving up that schedule. Celebrini is one of the best players in the game already. Great work there.

Honestly the Pacific is crazy tight. Look at that there. 9 points between 1st and 8th. 3 points between 1st and 6th. 2 points between 2nd and 6th. These standings are changing drastically every game night.

It’s what makes it tough to say anything about anyone so far in the Pacific. Take Seattle Kraken. Seattle always feels like a disappointment to me these days but there they are in fourth for the time being, albeit in a three way tie.

The Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks are being talked about like they will be sellers at the trade deadline and one winning streak will get them out of the basement. So sick of the loser point.

Central Division

Current Standings as of January 4th, 2026

1. Colorado Avalanche (69 points in 40 games)
2. Minnesota Wild (58 points in 43 games)
3. Dallas Stars (57 points in 41 games)
4. Nashville Predators (42 points in 41 games)
5. St. Louis Blues (42 points in 43 games)
6. Utah Mammoth (41 points in 42 games)
7. Chicago Blackhawks (39 points in 41 games)
8. Winnipeg Jets (34 points in 40 games)

My Predicted Standings

1. Dallas Stars (-2)
2. Colorado Avalanche (+1)
3. Winnipeg Jets (-5)
4. Minnesota Wild (+2)
5. St. Louis Blues
6. Utah Mammoth
7. Nashville Predators (+3)
8. Chicago Blackhawks (+1)

It’s important to put the point totals because there’s only a 8 point separation between 4th and 8th but a 15 point difference between 3rd and 4th. Unless someone goes on an insane winning streak we know the top three in the division, and basically know the President’s Trophy winner in the Colorado Avalanche.

I talked about being a Jets hater but boy I did not hate them enough! I still had them third! I was so negative on them why did I still give them 3rd!? I didn’t even talk about the Minnesota Wild but I definitely liked them more than the Jets!

I said the Nashville Predators would be a basement team. They are 26th right now, and barely sitting in 4th in the Central, so not as bad as I thought they would be.

The St. Louis Blues funny enough I said no playoffs due to bad karma from signing Milan Lucic. They look a little better after two wins but I still have very little confidence in them.

I originally wrote this on Friday and was going to publish it yesterday but got delayed. In that one day the Utah Mammoth fell from 4th to 6th and the Minnesota Wild bumped the Dallas Stars for 2nd. Minnesota since acquiring Quinn Hughes has been on a rampage. Not only that? I think they add. I’ll get to that later.

Eastern Conference

Now onto the East.

Metropolitan Division

Current Standings as of January 4th, 2026

1. Carolina Hurricanes (51 points in 41 games)
2. New York Islanders (50 points in 42 games)
3. Philadelphia Flyers (49 points in 40 games)
4. Washington Capitals (48 points in 42 games)
5. Pittsburgh Penguins (47 points in 40 games)
6. New Jersey Devils (46 points in 41 games)
7. New York Rangers (45 points in 43 games)
8. Columbus Blue Jackets (42 points in 40 games)

My Predicted Standings

1. Carolina Hurricanes
2. Washington Capitals (-2)
3. New Jersey Devils (-3)
4. Columbus Blue Jackets (-4)
5. New York Rangers (+2)
6. Philadelphia Flyers (+3)
7. New York Islanders (+5)
8. Pittsburgh Penguins (+3)

Again, the points matter more than the current standings. Only 7 points separate 8th place Columbus and 3rd place Philadelphia. These standings will change by the week.

There’s a few “pretenders” here that should be addressed. It’ll sound like I’m sour because they are doing far better than I thought, but anyone who watches the Flyers and Islanders play right now will tell you that they are not for real. Honestly, the one team that disappoints me is the Washington Capitals, who if you watch them play? They usually look really good. No clue why they are not closer to the Hurricanes for top in the division.

As of writing the Penguins are on a four game winning streak. They were near the bottom of the division and moved up quick. Another team playing beyond their ability.

Devils have been dealing with injuries and had multiple defencemen out along with Jack Hughes in and out of the lineup. If they can get a bit healthier I think they move back into a playoff spot.

The New York Rangers really feel like a team that isn’t admitting they need to call it quits and blow up the team. Then again I also feel that way about the Pittsburgh Penguins. The sooner these two do it? The sooner they’ll be contenders again.

Atlantic Division

Current Standings as of January 4th, 2026

1. Tampa Bay Lightning (51 points in 40 games)
2. Detroit Red Wings (52 points in 42 games)
3. Montreal Canadiens (50 points in 40 games)
4. Buffalo Sabres (46 points in 39 games)
5. Boston Bruins (44 points in 41 games)
6. Florida Panthers (45 points in 39 games)
7. Toronto Maple Leafs (44 points in 40 games)
8. Ottawa Senators (43 points in 39 games)

My Predicted Standings

1. Toronto Maple Leafs (-6)
2. Tampa Bay Lightning (+1)
3. Montreal Canadiens
4. Florida Panthers (-2)
5. Ottawa Senators (-3)
6. Boston Bruins (+1)
7. Buffalo Sabres (+3)
8. Detroit Red Wings (+6)

Okay. Let me explain.

Yes, the Detroit Red Wings look really good right now, and do not look like a basement team. They basically flipped with Toronto who I had winning the division. There’s a pretty good chance the Detroit Red Wings make the playoffs now.

That said.

I also think, much like the past two seasons, the Detroit Red Wings are once again going to have a catastrophic March and tumble down the standings. I don’t believe for a second they stay first in the Atlantic. Maybe they catch a wildcard spot but I just don’t see them staying at the top.

I will also point out that the separation between 8th and 1st is only eight points! Eight! There’s 11 points separating 1st place Colorado with 2nd place Minnesota in the Central! And yet in the Atlantic, if Ottawa wins two games and nobody else above them does? They will go from 8th to 4th!

For a while it was Tampa and Montreal in the 2/3 but now Tampa has taken their rightful place as top in the Atlantic. With Florida injured? Tampa takes the spot back as the top team in the Sunshine state. Montreal versus Detroit would be a fun first round playoff matchup between Original Six teams. Would also be a fun fight between Steve Yzerman and Martin St. Louis.

The Buffalo Sabres had just 11 wins 10 games ago. 11! They went 26 points to 46 points in 10 games! Worst in the league now in a wildcard spot. Who knows if this is sustainable, but they certainly look better than the Sens or Leafs lately.

I still think the Atlantic will lock up both wildcard spots. There’s a four point separation between 3rd and 4th while Washington and Philly are tied for that 3rd spot. I think as Florida gets healthier they’ll move into the 4th place spot.

Second Half of the Season Predictions

Okay, I got five big predictions. Actually call it six. I already had the “Detroit will slip out of the top three with another bad March” but before I get into this years? I gotta bring up my last year predictions.

1. Montreal will either secure a playoff spot (3rd in Atlantic or one of the two wildcard spots) or finish less than three points out of a playoff spot.

Montreal got in the last wildcard spot. Boom!

2. Alex Ovechkin breaks Wayne Gretzky’s regular season goal total this season.

I got this one too. I also said he’d score 47 goals but he missed that one by 3.

3. J.T. Miller gets traded to the New York Rangers by the NHL trade deadline.

I wrote this on January 8, 2025. JT Miller was traded ot the New York Rangers on January 31, 2025. Boom!

4. Lane Hutson does not win the Calder Trophy.

Well I got that one wrong. I was just so sure the voters wouldn’t favour him.

5. Mitch Marner re-signs with the Toronto Maple Leafs before the season is over.

I gotta say… I can’t believe I wrote this? Ask any of my friends and they’ll tell you I had been saying Marner was gone years ago. Like, I’ve always been predicting he’d be leaving the Leafs. And yet here I predict he’d stick around. I don’t know what came over me. I think it was Brock Boeser staying with Vancouver when it made all the sense in the world to leave. I was right about the price. I said he’d take under $13M and he went $12M. It just wasn’t a discount for Toronto.

Anyway, here are the 25-26 Predictions!

1. Ivan Demidov wins the Calder Trophy. I’m going positive on this one. Earlier in the season I was feeling like Matthew Schaefer as an 18 year old was doing things we haven’t seen an 18 year old do as a defenceman since Aaron Ekblad. Surely that was going to lock him up the Calder. But Ivan Demidov, who was the favourite going into the season, has now cruised up with 35 points and is leading all rookies by 5 points. I think he gets to a point per game when the season is over. The last rookie to hit a point per game scoring pace? Kaprizov was 51 in 55 in 20-21, but actually PPG was Mathew Barzal with 85 in 82 in 17-18. Prior to him was Evgeni Malkin with 85 in 78 in 06-07 and then of course Ovechkin in 05-06 with 106 points. I think if Demidov is a point per game rookie, it doesn’t matter what Schaefer is doing as a rookie defenceman on the Islanders. He’s winning it.

2. Neither Pennsylvania team makes the playoffs. Right now Pittsburgh sits in the second wildcard spot while Philadelphia sits in third for the Metro. I don’t think either team makes it. First, I don’t think any Metro team holds onto a wildcard spot. And second, I think Washington moves into third. The Flyers and Penguins will start stumbling as injuries pile up and both will be on the outside looking in.

3. The Edmonton Oilers will trade for a goalie. Again. The Oilers made a pretty big move when they traded starter Stuart Skinner to the Pittsburgh Penguins in a deal that got them Tristan Jarry back. Jarry is currently an .887 in between the pipes for Edmonton. Calvin Pickard, who the team almost rioted to keep from being sent to the AHL, holds an .874 in 11 games started. Connor Ingram has also played a few games and he’s an .883 in 4 games. This all while the Edmonton Oilers sit first in the Pacific! This goaltending is horrendous! That’s why I think, come trade deadline, the Edmonton Oilers trade for another goalie. Maybe it’s Sam Montembeault in Montreal. Maybe it’s Jordan Binnington in St. Louis. Maybe Eric Comrie in Winnipeg. Thatcher Demko has a three year extension kicking in at the end of the season paying him $8.5 million but has no trade protection now. Maybe the Oilers try to get him? The Toronto Maple Leafs got Woll, Stolarz, and Hildeby. Do they trade one to Edmonton in an overpay? Would be a great move by Toronto. Send over a kid like Hildeby who only costs $842K for the cash strapped Oilers but get a high pick and a good asset back? Lots of options there, but I definitely think they take one. No way they go into the playoffs with Jarry, Ingram, and Pickard.

4. All three California teams make the playoffs. Much like how I think there will be two wildcard teams in the Atlantic making it? I think the same for the Pacific division. Seattle and Los Angeles currently occupy the two wildcard spots while Anaheim is tied with Vegas for 2nd and 3rd with the Oilers only one point ahead of both. San Jose is tied with LA and Seattle. Maybe we see all three spots held by the California teams? Probably not, but I think Anaheim and San Jose have arrived and it’d be a great story to see them get in the playoffs. If I get this wrong it’s likely due to the Kings, who appear to be imploding.

5. Artemi Panarin gets traded by the New York Rangers to the Minnesota Wild. The Wild currently have $5 million in cap space. The Rangers, should they trade Panarin and retain 50%, would have him down to $5.82 million. My guess is that the Wild, who already made a massive move acquiring Quinn Hughes, will continue to stock up in hopes of beating the Dallas Stars in the first round and the Colorado Avalanche in the next. They’ll trade whatever draft capital they have left (it’s not much, we’re talking Carlos Lambos, Riley Heidt, Charlie Stramel level stuff, maybe the defenceman they just got in Theodor Hallquisth) and first round picks in 2027 and 2028. They gotta move a player on the roster to make room for Panarin so I expect someone like Ryan Hartman to go to the Rangers. He can be easily flipped right after. That gives the Wild a top six of Kirill Kaprizov, Artemi Panarin, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Johansson, and Danila Yurov. They could do a full Russian line of Kaprizov – Yurov – Panarin and Johansson (gotta be one of the best value signings of the season having him at $800K and putting up 32 points) – Eriksson Ek – Boldy. That might actually be enough to match firepower with the Avalanche and Stars. I think it happens.

That’s my progress on my predictions. We will see if I’m right at the end of the season. Let’s hope the Olympics doesn’t lead to a bunch of injuries with that rushed arena. Thanks for reading!

“Minnesota Wild – Twin Cities Pride Parade 2018 (43037698192) (cropped)” by Tony Webster from Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States is licensed under CC BY 2.0 .