“What are we even doing here?”
– Matthew Carlson, Canned Fish Files

End of Season NHL and Playoffs
NHL Playoffs 2nd Round
NHL Playoffs 3rd Round

All this time. All this effort. All this guessing. All this hand wringing. All this, “I think they can” and we just get a repeat of the Stanley Cup final last year.

Look at how the 2020s have shaken out so far.

2020: Dallas vs. Tampa Bay
2021: Montreal vs. Tampa Bay
2022: Colorado vs. Tampa Bay
2023: Vegas vs. Florida
2024: Edmonton vs. Florida
2025: Edmonton vs. Florida

This has of course caused people to claim there’s a big conspiracy for the Florida teams. The state taxes are this huge advantage. Of course, it wasn’t an advantage when the Florida Panthers hadn’t won a playoff series since 1996. Yes, that was broken in 21-22, the year prior to them going to the Cup final. It wasn’t a big advantage when the Tampa Bay Lightning were the laughing stock of the National Hockey League after winning 62 games and getting swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets in 18-19.

Which states have no income tax? Nashville, Florida, Tampa Bay, Dallas, Vegas, and Seattle. Seattle is brand new (and poorly run) but there has to be something when Florida has been to three straight finals, Tampa was in three straight prior, Vegas won a Cup, and Dallas has been in the Western Conference final for three straight years right?

Did you see the first team listed?

The Nashville Predators haven’t won a thing. They made the final once (I was following them then) and otherwise they’ve been either a glass tiger or a complete disappointment.

I argue with people about this all of the time, but there is an obsession with NHL fans, and likely other sports fans, in making things fair. In creating an equal playing field.

I’m sorry to tell you but it’s never, ever going to happen.

We’re already having people scream that taxes should not be factored into the salary cap. Fine. That isn’t going to change the poor decisions by your general manager, the mediocre players your team falls in love with, your coach mismanaging lines down by two goals in the third period, or your goaltender self destructing in the spring.

Whenever I hear someone from THE TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS complain about the state taxes I want to roll my eyes until they rollercoaster. You mean the city where players can get endorsements bigger than any other franchise or city? How about including player endorsement money into the salary cap? That’s an advantage. How about the fact your club is co-owned (as of this writing) by the two major telecommunications companies in all of Canada?

There’s a lot of things fans don’t consider to factor why some teams get players and others don’t. Some teams are just better at communication and pitching. Some teams have elite school systems and child care so players know if they move into a community their children will be taken care of when they are on the road. Property taxes and neighbourhoods matter. Heck, you know what matters to single men playing hockey? Those Florida bars with the young blonde bartenders who will divorce them five years after they retire so they end up set for life with one kid and are still in their 30s. Trust me. I’ve heard the stories first hand. Get your money ladies.

The fact is, people jump to these state tax excuses the moment their teams don’t succeed because it can’t be because they iced an inferior team. It can’t be because their GM made poor decisions. It can’t be because their star players didn’t perform. It’s the taxes.

Of course, it ignores that places like New York and California pay some of the highest state taxes in the league and they never have trouble getting free agents to sign. That’s because of other factors.

Also, Canadian fans always ignore that places like Edmonton and Calgary pay the lowest tax rate in Canada, a rate lower than places like New York. They also ignore THIS IS ONLY STATE TAX AND ALL PLAYERS STILL HAVE TO PAY FEDERAL TAX.

Okay I’m sick of this.

Just stop whining about taxes. Your team didn’t get to the final because they weren’t good enough. Tampa and Florida spent years rebuilding and making good decisions to get where they are. Dallas hasn’t won anything despite great drafting and free agent acquisitions. If you did better than Nashville? The taxes don’t matter.

3rd Round Recap

Central Division Winner Dallas Stars versus Pacific Division Winner Edmonton Oilers

My Prediction: Dallas Stars in SIX games

Result: Edmonton Oilers in FIVE games (-4)

I got both conference finals wrong. Sue me. I wanted something fresh.

Every time I start believing in Dallas they let me down. I should have known Pete DeBoer would blow this like he always does. Stuart Skinner got a shut out and won two games only allowing a single goal. Here I am questing the Oilers goaltending saying I can’t be believing in them since they don’t get the goaltending and what do they do? They shut the door. Without Mattias Ekholm! He came back to play one game against Dallas and had a +2 and an assist. He’s going to be huge for the Oilers for the Cup final.

I don’t really know what to say other than the Edmonton Oilers are absolutely for real. The Dallas Stars still have work to do. Their defence is embarrassing. Their coach can’t seem to get the job done in a Conference final and right now his goalie hates him. A lot of people expected to step up did not.

Was there a better trade deadline acquisition than Jake Walman? It’s either him or Marchand in Florida. Speaking of…

Atlantic Division Winner Florida Panthers versus Metropolitan Division Winner Carolina Hurricanes

My Prediction: Carolina Hurricanes in SEVEN games

Result: Florida Panthers in FIVE games (-6)

Carolina and Dallas.

Why do I love thee?

Why do I continue to believe in thee?

You make the Conference final then run out of gas completely.

I even KNEW the Conference final losing streak by the Hurricanes and didn’t care. I wanted to believe in them.

Hurricanes got some tough decisions to make. They actually have a ton of cap space. They could easily sign a Mitch Marner to a major deal and still have plenty left over. But they are not going to beat a Florida Panthers next playoff if their biggest move is just to add a Mitch Marner or a Brock Boeser.

Svechnikov took a lot of criticism in the regular season, started to bounce back in the playoffs, then went into a shell. The Kotkaniemi experience feels like it’s over. Who knows where Brent Burns goes. He’s still good, but if he disappears? You gotta replace him and Orlov. I would not be shocked to see like Matt Grzelcyk and Ivan Provorov end up their replacements. Essentially just taking two guys off the free agent board with similar stats.

And now the Florida Panthers.

You took out the Lightning. You took out the Maple Leafs. You took out the Hurricanes.

Defending Stanley Cup Champions.

Potentially the last run in Florida for Sam Bennett unless he re-signs. Potentially the last run for Aaron Ekblad unless he too re-signs, even though they already found his minutes replacement in acquiring Seth Jones.

Good chance Brad Marchand returns on a good deal. Probably enough money to keep the band back together.

Has Eetu Luostarinen broken out this post-season? Can they rely on him higher in the lineup?

If Bennett left, could Anton Lundell handle top six duties?

Florida could absolutely make some interesting moves with the money they have available. While I’m sure they want to keep this window open as long as possible, it should be noted that next summer? Sergei Bobrovsky is a free agent and will be 37. It’s a lot of money off the books and he might re-sign for much cheaper, but that still means you gotta eventually replace him.

The Panthers can always find bargains (go ahead, say taxes, say it, I dare you, I double dare you) but it feels like they might have one more year in the tank before they would have to make major changes to keep this Cup run going.

Either way, they’ve now matched their rival Tampa Bay Lightning. Three straight Cup finals. Tampa won two and lost one. Florida has won one, lost one, and will try to win a second.

Stanley Cup Predictions

Edmonton Oilers versus Florida Panthers

Sigh.

Here’s my dilemma.

Edmonton wins the Cup. The stupid whine of no Canadian cups is finally over. People can stop saying it. People can stop acting like there’s some Gary Bettman conspiracy holding it back (which is really funny when you look at how many cracks at first overall Edmonton got and then try to say he favours American teams? Come on) and Canadians can finally shut up about it.

If they win the Cup then McDavid and Leon get their Cups too and won’t be looked at as superstar players who can’t win. Probably keeps Connor in Edmonton as well if they win. But it also sends a message that goaltending can be inconsistent to win the Cup and I don’t care for that. That was basically the message when the Pittsburgh Penguins repeated back to back. I’m not a fan of that.

But it is what it is. Edmonton winning the Cup would be a feel good moment for a tortured franchise.

Now.

Florida goes back to back.

The Stanley Cup going back to back in the 2020s by both Florida teams would be very entertaining. People would once again scream and screech about the Cup not belonging in the sun belt.

The first ice hockey game was played in Texas in 1926. We are approaching the 100th anniversary of ice hockey being played in Texas. I'm Canadian and that shit is so annoying. "Hockey shouldn't be played in a desert hur hur" yeah and nobody is playing it on a pond anymore you dorks.

— Aaron – GrapPro.com (@aaron.wrotkowski.ca) 2025-05-18T01:59:44.643Z

For Florida it was 1938. Almost 90 years ago.

Pretending ice hockey can’t be played in warmer climates is so dumb. We don’t play on a pond outside anymore. Even the outdoor games are in football and baseball stadiums.

So who do I want to win?

I’ll say this much. Seeing Brad Marchand lift up the Stanley Cup would be worse for me as a Montreal Canadiens fan than seeing anyone on Edmonton lift it up. Okay, tied with Evander Kane.

Maybe I should flip it around. Who would I want to see lift the Stanley Cup?

For Edmonton it’s of course Mattias Ekholm. Darnell Nurse after all the criticism he’s got. Corey Perry finally winning one after so many Cup final losses in the 2020s would be nice. I don’t hate Corey Perry like others do. Way back in the day I watched Adam Henrique win Memorial Cups with the Windsor Spitfires and I said one day that guy is gonna win a Conn Smythe trophy. Well that didn’t happen but he could at least finally lift the Cup as an Oiler.

For Florida, same with Nurse when it comes to Jones. Guy took a lot of slack for signing the contract put in front of him instead of that criticism going to the team. Tkachuk winning again would just make me chuckle that he has been destroying the province of Alberta for the past several years. Still doing my victory lap of saying Florida won that deal.

I said last time I keep doubting the Edmonton Oilers because I don’t think their goaltending is real. I said I was disappointed in the Florida Panthers because they let the Toronto Maple Leafs look like they could beat them at one point.

There’s a place inside me that wants to give this to the Edmonton Oilers just because I don’t want to see Marchand lift that Cup one more time. But I’m going to continue doubting Stuart Skinner until it burns me.

Florida Panthers in SIX games

I’m sure someone will cry about the state of Florida running hockey in the first half of the 2020s, but I don’t think it happens in the second half. At least after 2026. I think Florida has one more run in them and that’s it. Then they go into the same spot Tampa is in right of being really good but not great.

If Edmonton bites the dust again, they might have one more crack before Connor McDavid could walk for nothing. That’s a far more exciting scenario than a Cup win in Edmonton and then McDavid just re-signs.

This summer could see some power shifting but the big power shift is that 2026 summer when you have potentially Connor McDavid, Kirill Kaprizov, Kyle Connor, Jack Eichel, Artemi Panarin, Martin Necas, Sergei Bobrovsky, Jacob Markstrom, Filip Gustavsson, and Anthony Stolarz all hitting free agency. Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson could retire. Carey Price finally off the books in Montreal. That’s where the real change could happen. With the cap continuing to go up, someone could build a true contender for a few years and take advantage of the situation.

That’s a big reason why I think having that franchise goaltender is so important. Maybe it isn’t. Maybe Pittsburgh proved you can build a strong enough core around the goalie and win. But I’d much rather have my goalie of the future locked up than have to scramble on the market for someone. And when Bob gets too old? Florida will have to do that. Toronto might have to do that. New Jersey might have to do that. Carolina is definitely doing that.

Anyway. Enjoy the repeat series.

“Edmonton Oilers Rookies vs UofA Golden Bears” by IQRemix is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 .