Making first round predictions for the NHL playoffs is when you try to be careful. You don’t want to say a team sucks and will lose. You also don’t want to be too careful, look like a coward, and say everything is going to seven golly gee.

Throughout my predictions I tried to be ruthless in my selections. I tried to be confident in the teams who would win. I got most of them right. I got two of them very wrong.

What’s funny is that the one I tried to be conservative about ended up being a good prediction even though throughout the series I kept kicking myself for not being more vigilant and ruthless about them. That’s the Winnipeg Jets.

First Round Recap

President’s Trophy Winning Winnipeg Jets versus Wildcard 2 St. Louis Blues

My Prediction: Winnipeg Jets in SIX games

Result: Winnipeg Jets in SEVEN GAMES (-1)

I straight up called the Winnipeg Jets frauds but I was afraid to pick the St. Louis Blues because they were an overachiever team and those teams tend to run out of gas. Montreal, Ottawa, Minnesota all overachieving teams as well. The playoffs needs those teams for surprise upsets but usually you don’t get cinderella fairy dust and you just get a good young core losing steam.

Picking the Jets in six was tough for me because I do not believe, nor will I ever, believe in the Winnipeg Jets as a top contending team. I’ll lay my cards out. I don’t think the Winnipeg Jets should have got another NHL team. If it was up to me, the NHL would put second teams in Montreal and Toronto before they tried another Canadian city. Atlanta should have just been purchased by the league (like they did with Phoenix) and found a capable owner and played things out in the city. When you look up ESPN NHL Attendance it’s not like Winnipeg outdraws Atlanta massively from those years. I’m sure ticket prices are much higher, but even today Winnipeg has trouble filling seats.

Winnipeg gets favoured in the media because they’ve already tried to be a bigger stronger team and the media can be dumb and they see big strong men and go OH BIG STRONG MEN ALWAYS WIN AGAINST SMALL TINY MEN PLAYOFFS TOUGH and then ignore the decade of failure by the Winnipeg Jets to win against teams smaller than them.

They have a top goaltender in Connor Hellebuyck who will likely win the Vezina and was argued to be a Hart trophy candidate who finished the series with a .830 save percentage. Unacceptable trash. He was pulled multiple times in the series. He wasn’t the reason they got to the second round. He’s the reason the Jets nearly lost.

All that said… Winnipeg pulled off a game seven comeback for the ages to win in double overtime against the St. Louis Blues and they deserve to be commended for that. At least until I get to my second round predictions.

It’s too bad the Blues lost because history will forget that their leading scorer in the playoffs this year was their December 14, 2024 acquisition of defenceman Cam Fowler who put up 10 points in 7 games. Not bad for a second round pick. A lot of teams should be kicking themselves for not making that move. He’s got another year at only $4M at age 33. What a fantastic pick up (of a guy who I watched as a Windsor Spitfire and thought he’d never make it in the league. See I can admit when I’m wrong!)

Divisional Matchup Dallas Stars versus Colorado Avalanche

My Prediction: Colorado Avalanche in SEVEN games

Result: Dallas Stars in SEVEN games (-1)

I’m only giving myself a minus one on here when the team was wrong because it went to seven games.

I know there’s going to be a lot of narratives about the Colorado Avalanche losing in the first round but I’m sorry. It’s the Dallas Stars. These are arguably two of the three best teams in the West (along with Vegas) and I would say the top 5 teams in the whole league. I don’t care what round it happens in. This was an absolute war and who gets through is now a Stanley Cup favourite.

I gave the edge to the Avalanche because they had so much going for them. They changed up a lot of their genetic makeup in goaltending and on forward, and then they got their captain Gabriel Landeskog back and he actually looks like a top forward again. But no matter how good Martin Necas has been for them in the regular season? He isn’t Mikko Rantanen.

Rantanen has taken a beating from Avalanche fans, from Hurricanes fans, and while all of the Dallas Stars fans I know have been patient with him, I’m sure there would have been a lot of criticism his way if the Avalanche won that game seven. Much like the Jets/Blues this came down to a game seven comeback but this didn’t need overtime. Rantanen’s hat trick in the third period will come to haunt the Colorado Avalanche for a very long time.

Which is good. Dallas/Colorado should become the new Detroit/Colorado of the Western Conference. This should be a rivalry for the ages.

Pacific Division Winner Las Vegas Golden Knights versus Wildcard 1 Minnesota Wild

My Prediction: Las Vegas Golden Knights in FIVE games

Result: Las Vegas Golden Knights in SIX games (-1)

I got pretty close on this one and I credit the Minnesota Wild for pushing it to six. Vegas is an incredible team. The Wild winning game two and three at 5-2 really had people wondering what happened to the Knights only for them to bounce back in back to back overtime victories.

It does make you wonder if the Wild were just a really good team or if the Golden Knights are not playing to their ability. Adin Hill finishing with a .880 while Logan Thompson is the best goalie of the first round over in Washington does make it feel like the Knights backed the wrong horse. Hill even had to be pulled once.

Minnesota fought hard, and what will be most interesting with them will be how they spend their money going forward. They already have a great team and the buyout cap charges of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter go from $14.7M this season to $1.66M next season. That’s a lot of free money to do a lot of things, Toss the cap going up to $95.5M and Minnesota can add a significant player or two while still keeping in mind they have to convince Kirill Kaprizov and Filip Gustavsson to stay.

Divisional Matchup Los Angeles Kings versus Edmonton Oilers

My Prediction: Los Angeles Kings in FIVE games

Result: Edmonton Oilers in SIX games (-4)

Giving myself a -2 because Kings were picked to win and they only won two games instead of four, a -1 for wrong team, and a -1 for wrong amount of games.

This was my worst prediction in the playoffs and I’m chalking it down to not paying attention to history. I absolutely missed how snakebit the Kings have been historically to the Oilers. I thought LA had more gas in them. Finding out their coach absolutely sucks and sits on leads is the kind of thing that makes me embarrassed to give them any faith.

My Western Conference prediction had Colorado going to the final so that’s out of the question. Don’t worry my East prediction was bad too!

Atlantic Division Winner Toronto Maple Leafs versus Wildcard 1 Ottawa Senators

My Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs in SEVEN games

Result: Toronto Maple Leafs in SIX games (-1)

Wasn’t far off here.

It was pretty funny that the Leafs went up 3-0 and looked ready for their typical collapse. It really felt like everything was falling apart for them again just like they did against the Canadiens back in 2021.

Most people picked the Sens to be a tough matchup but just the way things were going it felt like Toronto just couldn’t finisht hem off.

Of course the media focused on a powerplay goal by Auston Matthews assisted by Mitch Marner, the first goal of the game, as the big deciding winner, instead of William Nylander’s two goals and an assist in the game. Nylander is their leading scorer in the playoffs right now and absolutely the Leafs best player but he will be forever overshadowed by Marner and Matthews who collapse when a series is on the line.

Good game by Max Pacioretty as well. Leafs sure love their former Habs to get them going in the playoffs. Anyway.

Good showing by the Ottawa Senators. Time to build on this and not get too ahead of yourselves. They will likely be in the wildcard hunt again next season.

Divisional Matchup Tampa Bay Lightning versus Florida Panthers

My Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning in SEVEN games

Result: Florida Panthers in FIVE games (-5)

This one is bad. For me.

Let me explain myself. I thought this was going to be the most challenging series of the first round. It was this and Dallas/Colorado. To me these series were going to be like the true conference finals. I didn’t expect the Florida Panthers to absolutely steamroll the Tampa Bay Lightning the way they did.

6-2
2-0
Lost 5-1
4-2
6-3

That’s not a close series. I was right that it was violent but aside from game three, the Lightning only scored 7 goals to Florida’s 18 in those games. Absolute domination. I thought the Panthers would look more banged up. They do not. They are a threat to repeat for the Stanley Cup.

Eastern Conference Winners Washington Capitals versus Wildcard 2 Montreal Canadiens

My Prediction: Washington Capitals in FIVE games

Result: Washington Capitals in FIVE games (!)

Right on the button!

I knew this would be the Montreal Canadiens, who overachieved and probably shouldn’t have been in a playoff spot, running into a juggernaut of the Washington Capitals.

The games were pretty close until the final two, which Capitals coach Spencer Carbery gave credit to Montreal and said the series was closer than it looked. Caps had to win in OT, hold onto a one goal lead in game two for 35 minutes before a final second empty netter in the third, got stomped in game three, had to come back in the third period for game four (that’s two empty netters to make the score look further out of reach than the actual game was, it was a 2-2 tie until the final five minutes) and then game five Montreal ran out of gas and Washington had them beat with two goals in the first.

I’m proud of the way the Habs played ultimately. Lane Hutson led the team with five points in five games as a rookie defenceman playing 24:50 a night. Caufield showed once again he can bring it in the playoffs with three goals. Suzuki was well played by Capitals defence and struggled offensively but he was great on faceoffs. Ivan Demidov got more of Martin St. Louis’ trust as the series went and walked out with two assists.

The Habs had incredible health all season long only to be banged up and injured for the playoffs. It sucks but it’s a reversal of what has been for several years now, where the team gets too hurt during the season to make any noise. There’s going to be a lot of rehabbing in the summer for the Habs.

I don’t expect Christian Dvorak to return even if he had a good playoffs. He should be looking to a new team to play for in their bottom six and chase a Cup. Joel Armia might come back since he is an important cog in their bottom six but no guarantee there either. David Savard of course retired at the end of the series. His spot on the club has already been replaced in the Alexandre Carrier trade.

I’ll do an offseason deep dive on the Habs sometime this summer but I just want to outline how many young players on this team will be expected to take a step:

Nick Suzuki had his best regular season and put up 89 points, the best number since Alex Kovalev in 07-08 and the best performance by a Montreal Canadiens centre since the days of Vincent Damphousse and Pierre Turgeon in the mid 90s. He’s 25.

Cole Caufield got close to 40 goals with 37. He’s 24. Both Suzuki and Caufield are locked up to $7.8M deals until the next decade.

Lane Hutson in his rookie year put up 66 points at age 21 for third in team scoring.

Juraj Slafkovsky had his second 50 point season and improved on his defensive numbers. He’s only 21 and just next season will move into his second contract at $7.6M million until 2033.

Emil Heineman needs his second contract this summer at age 23. His 18 points in 62 games as a rookie playing bottom six exclusively doesn’t sound impressive but the Habs turnaround this year is in big part to him becoming a dependable middle six winger. At one point he was one of the Top 10 rookie scorers in the league until he started dealing with injury issues. His development is important going forward, especially with Joshua Roy and Raphael Harvey-Pinard slipping out of bottom six forward roles on the club.

Kaiden Guhle, also 23, really came into his own this year as a defenceman. 18 points in 55 games is a better point per game than last seasons 22 in 70. He’s becoming a true top four defenceman for the club and enters his new deal at $5.5M per season until the next decade.

That’s six players all 25 or under that are leading this Habs squad in different ways, four of which are locked up for under $8M, one needs a new deal this summer, and the other can talk extension soon as he wins rookie of the year. Habs are still going to have to fight for a wildcard spot next season but boy is the future bright in ways I’ve never seen before.

Divisional Matchup Carolina Hurricanes versus New Jersey Devils

My Prediction: Carolina Hurricanes in FIVE games

Result: Carolina Hurricanes in FIVE games (!)

Once again I was right on the money.

I had zero energy writing up about this one but I made clear I didn’t think Sheldon Keefe was a good head coach. I still don’t. I’m not surprised this Devils team folded up like a cheap leisure suit. The series was pretty close and the Devils took the Canes to a double OT but that was as far as they were going to go.

New acquisitions Taylor Hall and Logan Stankoven had good first rounds while Andrei Svechnikov, whose had a down year, was still a big contributor with five goals in five playoff games. Freddie Anderson was spectacular for them despite getting hurt in game four. Carolina also just gave him a one year extension at $2.75 million. Bargain for Carolina.

I had Tampa in the final and Colorado in the final. Both teams bounced. Oops.

Overall when it comes to the eight series I had -13 due to wrong team or number of games but I got two of them right on the money. I just put a ! to mark it but I’d say getting it exactly right should be 4 points on the wins, 1 point on the right team, 1 point on the games lost. So 6 points. I finish the first round at a -1. This is all arbitrary and made up anyway.

Second Round Predictions

Let’s start off in the West.

President’s Trophy Winning Winnipeg Jets versus Dallas Stars

Both teams coming off of thrilling game seven comebacks so there’s no talk of who is more exhausted for this series. They will be on even playing fields.

Of course, the Dallas Stars had to beat the Colorado Avalanche who I thought had as good of a shot as any to win the Stanley Cup. Winnipeg struggled to take down the St. Louis Blues.

Mikko probably won’t be as motivated to beat the Jets as he was to beat the Avalanche but I’m confident the team brings it to the Jets. I’ve been calling the Jets frauds forever. Time to prove me right in the second round.

Dallas Stars in FIVE games

Pacific Division Winner Las Vegas Golden Knights versus Edmonton Oilers

Adin Hill worries me and I think the Edmonton Oilers work hard to expose him. That said it’s not like the Edmonton Oilers are that unbeatable with Calvin Pickard in net. Both Pickard and Hill are under .900 in their save percentage from the first round.

Edmonton absolutely has more firepower but Vegas is a better rounded team, and that’s what I think gets them through this in the end. If the Oilers win it’s not because I thought they were a bad team. They are just a flawed team whose flaws can overpower them against on paper better opponents. I’m going seven. Tough challenge.

Vegas Golden Knights in SEVEN games

Now we move to the East.

Atlantic Division Winner Toronto Maple Leafs versus Florida Panthers

I didn’t predict a sweep in the first round. Funny that.

Are the Toronto Maple Leafs a better team than the last time these two met? Yes. I saw someone talking up the Leafs because they had a few former Florida Panthers on their squad. You know who has the most former Panthers from their Stanley Cup run? The Florida Panthers.

Nate Schmidt had three goals in the series against Tampa. Nate!

Six forwards had point per game performances on the Panthers. None of their Top 10 walked out of the series with less than a positive plus minus. Meanwhile the Top 10 of the Leafs only had one player with a positive plus minus in Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Everyone else was a goose egg or a negative.

Go ahead, whine about me using plus minus. I don’t care.

I predict this to be a massacre and I’ll take the laughing from Leaf fans if I end up wrong.

Florida Panthers in FOUR games

Eastern Conference Winners Washington Capitals versus Carolina Hurricanes

Carolina will depend on the health of Freddie Anderson. They proved they could win without him. Kochetkov did make 31 saves in that double OT game five victory.

Carolina is a much tougher challenge for Washington than Montreal was, but I think this club rises to the challenge. The top players played great in the Canadiens series, especially Logan Thompson. The deeper the Caps go, the better that trade will look. Vegas got two third round picks for Logan Thompson. That’s it. That’s it!

I think both teams are close to evenly matched and I see it going the distance. A true southeast division battle. Yes I said what I said.

Washington Capitals in SEVEN games

That would give us Dallas versus Vegas and Florida versus Washington. Big time matchups. Any combination of teams you pick in the final on that would be a great Stanley Cup final.

I’ll push for Dallas versus Florida, but I’d also love to see Thompson try to get revenge against the Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup final. That would be perfect.

“NHL 2010 (2) DESLAURIERS” by Kaz Andrew is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 .