Hockey
NHL Playoffs 3rd Round
NHL Playoffs 3rd Round
“Because two out of four ain’t bad.”
– Meatloaf looking at my 2nd Round predictions
End of Season NHL and Playoffs
NHL Playoffs 2nd Round
I mentioned that the first round of NHL playoff predictions is when most try to be careful and be a little conservative while I tried to be ruthless. Second round I attempted to keep being ruthless. It ended up making me look silly.
2nd Round Recap
President’s Trophy Winning Winnipeg Jets versus Dallas Stars
My Prediction: Dallas Stars in FIVE games
Result: Dallas Stars in SIX games (-1)
This was my closest prediction. I said that I was too nice to the Winnipeg Jets in the first round and I wouldn’t be so nice this time. I was rewarded with the Dallas Stars whipping them from pillar to post.
That said, it was honestly a closer series than it might seem due to the fact that Connor Hellebuyck finally remembered the calibre of goaltender he’s supposed to be and was only shelled in game three. Game one he allowed three goals in a close 3-2 victory for the Stars, game two he had a shutout, game four he allowed three but the Jets only scored one goal, game four was another shutout, and game five the Jets lost in overtime to a powerplay goal. I don’t really blame him on this one. Dallas defence shut the door on the Jets. Four out of six games they couldn’t put more than two past Oettinger.
Feels good to see the fraud Jets go down but I also feel for Mark Scheifele who lost his father and had to sit in the penalty box and see his team go down in the playoffs.
Winnipeg already had their big revamp back in the summer of 2023 when they let Blake Wheeler go via buyout and traded Pierre-Luc Dubois for Alex Iafallo, Rasmus Kupari, and Gabriel Vilardi. They now got to see if Nikolaj Ehlers leaves via free agency and what it will cost to keep Gabe Vilardi. Brandon Tanev was a trade deadline acquisition.
Next summer will be a bit tougher. Kyle Connor will be up, Adam Lowry their captain is up, Cole Perfetti needs a new deal then, and a lot of their veterans on the blueline will need to be replaced. I expect to see the Jets do their best to replace Ehlers with someone like Ryan Donato or maybe they get Boeser and move Perfetti to the left.
Anyway nevermind the Winnipeg Jets. Shouldn’t even be in Winnipeg. Should still be in Atlanta. Thrashers forever. How about the Dallas Stars? They go out and get Mikko Rantanen and Mikko is now leading the playoffs in goals and points. The next Dallas Star closest to him is defenceman Thomas Harley with 8 less points! I know there’s a real scoring by committee in Dallas but they have some big name players that need to start stepping up their game. Tyler Seguin has five points so far. Jason Robertson only has an assist since coming back from injury. I’d like to see a little more from Wyatt Johnston.
Miro Heiskanen couldn’t have returned at a better time. If anyone is going to keep Dallas’ offence trucking in the WCF it’s Miro.
Pacific Division Winner Las Vegas Golden Knights versus Edmonton Oilers
My Prediction: Las Vegas Golden Knights in SEVEN games
Result: Edmonton Oilers in FIVE games (-4)
I pick the Kings in five and the Oilers win in six. I pick the Knights in seven and the Oilers win in five.
The Edmonton Oilers hate me.
Listen I get it. I absolutely get it. Leon and Connor and Evan are absolute wrecking balls. Corey Perry is playing like he wants that one last ring more than anything. Evander Kane isn’t a complete liability yet. They even got timely scoring from Kasperi Kapanen!
I’m always going to bet against a club with Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard as their goaltending. I just can’t trust that to win them the Stanley Cup. So even if I get it wrong again? At least you understand my thought process. I just don’t think you can completely neglect having a responsible starting goaltender and go all the way. This was my criticism of the Colorado Avalanche back when my Avalanche friends insisted they could do it with Philipp Grubauer. The year they finally gave up on Phil and went with a real starter they won the Stanley Cup.
Of course, someone is going to say Aaron, what do you mean the goalies are not good enough? They shut out the Golden Knights in the final two games! That’s true. Skinner definitely got back to back shutouts. I think that’s more about the Golden Knights running completely out of steam than it is that Stuart Skinner is HIM or however you want to put it.
Vegas is essentially a built team. There isn’t much room for change unless the GM decides to move someone with a long term deal. Reilly Smith, original misfit, he came back after stints in Pittsburgh and New York and put up a few goals. Take it or leave it situation there. Ivan Barbashev, I love the guy, but he was invisible. Nicolas Roy didn’t step up. Tomas Hertl was a real disappointment.
Predicting Vegas to do nothing is to not understand the Vegas Golden Knights. Karlsson, Barbashev, Theodore, even Adin Hill could get moved this summer should Vegas feel it necessary. If Tomas Hertl blows it next summer and his no movement becomes a modified no trade clause? Expect him out the door and fast.
If Vegas adds anywhere in another “wow I didn’t expect them to do that but I totally should have” move? I bet it ends up at centre.
Atlantic Division Winner Toronto Maple Leafs versus Florida Panthers
My Prediction: Florida Panthers in FOUR games
Result: Florida Panthers in SEVEN games (-3)
I took a swing. I predicted the Panthers to sweep.
Toronto wins the first two games and goes up in game three.
Then the Florida Panthers, caring about my prediction, nearly win the next four games. They get game three, game four, and game five.
Then they lay an egg in game six! Curses!
And to make matters worse, game seven is just as big of a win as game five! They couldn’t just do that in game six and make me feel better about my sweep prediction?
I hate you Florida. You ruined this for me!
I’ve been watching a lot of Leaf coverage because the Toronto Sports Media loves to spin their wheels on this.
First, let’s get into it. Mitch Marner.
Zero accountability. Same with Auston Matthews. Listen to their post games. Listen to all of this talk about passengers. Think back to game five where Chris Tanev, bless his heart, tried to put the blame on himself. Marner had two goals in 13 games with a -1. Do you know who had that in five games? Christian Dvorak.
Now I know. Matthews and Marner played tough defensive assignments against the Stanley Cup champions. I don’t care. “Wah what about Nikita Kucherov” ask Tampa Bay fans and don’t change the subject.
I’m now listening to people (Darren Dreger on TSN) saying you can’t replace these guys like Marner and Tavares. There isn’t better players available. Do you not forget why the Florida Panthers are here? 2021-2022. Presidents Trophy winners. Won the East. Won the Atlantic. 16th highest mark in NHL history for goals per game above league average. Huberdeau with 115 points. Weegar with 44.
Florida got swept in the second round by Tampa Bay. Huberdeau had one goal and Weegar had one point. Do you know what they did? They packaged both for Matthew Tkachuk. They said this isn’t working we’re changing the face of this organization.
Toronto refused to do that. Refused to trade Marner. Refused to trade Matthews. Refused to trade Rielly. Refused to trade Nylander. They refused to change their core and expected new results.
There have been countless times in NHL history where a team lost a trade on paper just to change their organization and it led to a Stanley Cup win. Montreal made a terrible trade when they moved Chris Chelios to Chicago for Denis Savard. Savard was injured for their 1993 Cup run. But the young defensive core of Eric Desjardins and Mathieu Schneider stepped up to replace Chelios. Kirk Muller and Stephane Lebeau stepped up to replace Savard down the middle. Vincent Damphousse, traded for tough guy grit and character Shayne Corson, stepped up against Quebec to win them a first round they were about to lose because Patrick Roy, the eventual Conn Smythe trophy winner, was blowing it.
After the 89 Cup Final, Montreal traded Stephane Richer, Shayne Corson, and Russ Courtnall and turned them into Kirk Muller, Vincent Damphousse, and Brian Bellows. That’s how they won in 93.
Look at the changes Vegas made to win in 2023. You want a fun one? Craig Berube is the Leafs coach. He replaced Mike Yeo in 18-19 when the Blues won the Cup. Look at the 17-18 St. Louis Blues. The biggest change is they traded Patrick Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, Tage Thompson, and a first and second for Ryan O’Reilly. O’Reilly changed everything for them. One player to disrupt the core. He was only 27 when he went there.
Toronto once had Ryan O’Reilly. Big trade for them. He put up 9 points in 11 playoff games. He walked to free agency to the Nashville Predators. Leaf Nation mocked him. Can’t handle the pressure. Can’t handle the media.
No. He can’t handle the core. He can’t handle seeing that club continue to allow a no accountability core of players continue to fail and not take responsibility for their actions. That is why Ryan O’Reilly walked. You can believe the public comments or you can believe what people have heard. I know what sounds real.
In the end? I love this. I don’t need to see the richest team in hockey, the team with the most resources, and the team that cares the least about its fans become winners. I’m okay with them having this loser mentality forever blaming fans and the media. These guys should be the Los Angeles Dodgers of the National Hockey League. They should have the brightest minds making the best decisions signing the best players for the best out of the box contracts. Instead they continue to just be good enough to lose.
Instead they got the guy who let Johnny Gaudreau walk for free about to watch Mitch Marner walk for free.
Eastern Conference Winners Washington Capitals versus Carolina Hurricanes
My Prediction: Washington Capitals in SEVEN games
Result: Carolina Hurricanes in FIVE games (-3)
I’m so sorry Carolina. I should have had more faith in you. I’ve been picking you for so long I’m starting to feel like I shouldn’t. I do believe Washington was equally matched, or at least a very good team, and you just absolutely crushed them. I should have believed in you more and I’m sorry.
I think trading Mikko to Dallas had me doubting them a little bit, but honestly if that leads to Carolina and Dallas in the Cup final? Bring it on. Taylor Hall has been excellent for them and he re-signed at almost half the price. Logan Stankoven is only 22 but I think he will be decent in Carolina. Andrei Svechnikov, who people for some reason were writing off at age 25 because he had a poor regular season, has 8 goals in 10 playoff games.
I really believed in Washington making it to the Eastern Conference final. I loved the changes they made. I love their two goalies. I’m always a big Anthony Beauvillier guy and he played great for the Caps in the playoffs. I doubt Mangiapane is back. Taylor Raddysh being 27 is a reminder of my own aging mortality back when he was in the Memorial Cup and I was sure that kid was going to be a superstar power forward, he might not be back but he’ll be good for someone’s bottom six.
There’s a bunch of LTIR contracts coming up with Backstrom and Oshie. Everyone knows that the future of the Washington Capitals is actually Aliaksei Protas who already signed an extension when he’s already a 30 goal scorer and almost a point per game player. Coming soon is his brother Ilya Protas who had 124 points on the Windsor Spitfires with 20 points in 7 playoff games as an 18 year old. He’s coming soon and he could challenge Ivan Demidov and others for the Calder Trophy next season.
Terik Parascak, Hendrix Lapierre, Cam Allen (if he can get a designated driver), and Leon Muggli tell you that even if the Capitals are without Alex Ovechkin soon? They won’t be without a future. The Caps won’t be falling apart for first overall picks anytime soon.
3rd Round Predictions
Start the 3rd round as always in the West.
Central Division Winner Dallas Stars versus Pacific Division Winner Edmonton Oilers
I picked Colorado in the first round and Dallas won. I picked Dallas in the second round over Winnipeg and Dallas won.
I picked Los Angeles and Vegas over Edmonton and Edmonton won both.
I keep doubting the Edmonton Oilers because I just don’t believe the goaltending is real.
I’m going to continue these doubts until I look absolutely stupid and Edmonton wins their first Stanley Cup since Bill Ranford carried a Gretzky-less Oilers over the Boston Bruins. Did you know one of the games in that series had a power failure during a triple overtime that meant everyone got a half hour break? There were also four penalties in that triple overtime. Both were tit for tat penalties (Neely and Smith for roughing, Moog and Tikkanen for slashing each other.)
It’s basically Leon versus Mikko for me. Whoever has the better series probably wins the series for their team.
My real concern with Dallas, even if I’m going with them, is whether or not they actually get big performances from some of the guys not named Mikko Rantanen. It’s nice to see Thomas Harley put up 4 goals and 11 points in the playoffs but I want to see more from Duchene, Seguin, Dadonov, Marchment, and Benn.
Dallas Stars in SIX games
Atlantic Division Winner Florida Panthers versus Metropolitan Division Winner Carolina Hurricanes
I chose the Carolina Hurricanes to beat the New Jersey Devils and was correct. I picked Washington over Carolina in the second round and was incorrect.
I picked Tampa to beat Florida and Florida crushed them. I picked Florida to crush the Toronto Maple Leafs and they let it go to seven.
“I don’t think anyone is picking the Carolina Hurricanes to beat the Florida Panthers.”
– Darren Dreger, TSN
I’m disappointed in the Florida Panthers.
I picked them to sweep the Leafs and they let it go to seven. They crushed the Leafs in game five and seven but that game six shutout? Shutout by Joseph Woll? Come on.
Matthew Tkachuk has been pretty disappointing this playoffs. Definitely playing hurt. Definitely not at 100% but the club has had others step up like trade deadline pickup Brad Marchand and superstar Finn Eetu Luostarinen.
Panthers are one of the toughest teams in the NHL. They bully you. They get away with a lot by the refs. Am I really going to choose a team full of small, skilled, feisty but thin players in Carolina? Can Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Shayne Gostisbehere, Taylor Hall, and Logan Stankoven beat the size of the Florida Panthers?
Probably not. But I’m picking the Hurricanes. I feel bad for not selecting them over Washington and I’m still mad at Florida giving Toronto three wins.
Carolina Hurricanes in SEVEN games
On the 2nd Round I said it would be Dallas versus Florida and now I’m flipping to Dallas versus Carolina just because I thought Florida was whipping Washington in a seven game series. Now I’m going with Carolina. Whatever. Sue me.
