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Montreal Canadiens 26-27 Season Preview

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Last year I asked, “How good are the Montreal Canadiens in 25-26?” and did it after my Likely Wrong Regular Season predictions. This time I’ll do it earlier.

In that “How Good?” I brought up the fact that the Montreal Canadiens needed a veteran presence. They recently traded Brendan Gallagher to the Vancouver Canucks. Doesn’t that hurt the veteran presence?

Of course, they would later fill that hole with Chris Kreider.

I questioned if Sam Montembeault was the goalie of the future and compared him to Cristobal Huet when Montreal had Price and Halak in the system. Monty is still here but he’s the clear number three now.

I talked highly of Zachary Bolduc having a big season and it didn’t happen. Instead, he started hot, cooled down, and struggled to figure his place in the lineup. He did however have a decent post-season.

I asked what if Nick Suzuki hits 100 points. He did. I asked what if Cole Caufield scores 40? He scored 50. I asked what if Alex Newhook stops frustrating me and he did! Well aside from the injuries. Not his fault.

I’m getting ahead of myself. I’m not just responding to the article. Let’s preview the Montreal Canadiens.

Sign Everyone

The Montreal Canadiens made it their goal to ensure a lot of their players were locked up this summer. Ivan Demidov signed quite arguably the best contract of the summer, locked up for eight years at $9.15 million per season. Jakub Dobes signed a three year extension that doesn’t kick in until next season at $5.357 million per. It took a while for any new action after that but Bolduc would re-sign at four years, $4.2 million taking him right to UFA status. Chris Kreider I already talked about.

Tuesday we got two more signings. Arber Xhekaj finally re-signed a one year $1.5 million deal to keep him an RFA and ensure everyone on the roster had a contract. Then Alex Newhook signed an extension to kick in next year at $5.5 million for the next five years.

The club is locked up. Four defencemen have long term deals. Seven forwards have long term deals.

Next summer’s UFA’s are mostly veterans. Philip Danault, Josh Anderson, Alex Carrier, Sam Montembeault, and the newly acquired Chris Kreider. The only kinda young player coming up in the summer is Kirby Dach. Their deals expiring make room for Newhook’s raise, Demidov’s new deal, and Dobes new deal. In other words, the Habs are in good cap shape once they get an extra $9 million from the salary cap.

Youth in Perpetuity

Last season, Montreal was the youngest team in the league and made the playoffs. They might not be the youngest team this year, but they will still be one of the youngest. What’s crazy is that they could still take the youngest team in the league title back by next summer.

You see, Alexander Zharovsky and Michael Hage will be likely finishing their Russian and NCAA careers out and coming to the Montreal Canadiens in the spring. They could potentially crack the playoff lineup. That’s two potential top six forwards, both arguably top nine forwards, who slip into the lineup at 20 and 21. There’s also David Reinbacher, who could win a roster spot this fall if he can squeeze out someone like Carrier into a seventh defenceman role.

Remember, the Habs got Caufield, Slafkovsky, Dach, Newhook, Kapanen, Demidov, Hutson, Guhle, Xhekaj, Struble, Dobes, and Fowler all under the age of 26. And they could be bringing in three more!

That is, if they don’t trade them away.

It seems like the Montreal Canadiens almost made a huge deadline deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs for Matthew Knies that would have included Zharovsky, prospect defenceman Adam Engstrom, plus first round picks. Because that never happened the Canadiens selected Gleb Pugachyov in the first round. It also means they still have so many assets and only so many spots.

There’s been a lot of rumours on Kirill Marchenko of the Columbus Blue Jackets. While I understand why the Canadiens want him, I’m not sure if I want to spend Zharovsky to get him. Or Hage. I mean look at Zharovsky here. He looks very close to a complete project in the KHL already. He’s getting his points. I don’t want to look him only to see him playing at a 50+ point level in his rookie or sophomore year for a guy who maybe does 20 points better now but will cost a heck of a lot more.

Sometimes there’s a “shit or get off the pot” on building a team where you have to shift your youth for players that will help you win now. I get that. But I’m fine doing that after we get Hage and Zharovsky going. I’d also like to keep Pugachyov just because he seems like a wrecking ball. The only other player I’m protective of not on the team yet is Bryce Pickford because he either picked on a bunch of young kids in the WHL or he’s a legit 30 goal defencemen scoring threat. I don’t want to lose him until we’ve seen him in the AHL.

Crowded Room

So we got all this talk of young players getting added. We got everyone re-signed. We got Chris Kreider coming in.

Is there spots for everyone?

No.

At centre you got Nick Suzuki and Philip Danault. 1C and 4C. Then you got 2C and 3C. Last year that was often Oliver Kapanen and Jake Evans. But it could also be Kirby Dach or Alex Newhook.

Top six wingers are set with Cole Caufield, Ivan Demidov, and Juraj Slafkovsky. That fourth spot… Newhook? Kreider? Kapanen? Dach? Bolduc?

Bottom six wingers you got Josh Anderson and essentially… anyone else. Heck, they might even try Arber Xhekaj as a bottom six winger. Oh, and Alex Texier. He can go literally anywhere.

Can any of the kids make the lineup? Owen Beck? Florian Xhekaj? Jared Davidson? Maybe one of the new kids like Brett Berard, Sasha Pastujov, or Samuel Poulin?

Over on defence you got Noah Dobson and Mike Matheson pretty set in their spots. Lane Hutson is the best defenceman on the team but will he be on his natural left side or the right side?

Alex Carrier likely to play third pairing but is he set in the spot? Can Kaiden Guhle stay healthy? What happens with Jayden Struble and Arber Xhekaj? Can Adam Engstrom or David Reinbacher crack the lineup this season?

Even at goal it’s more conflicting than it should be. Jakub Dobes is the starter. Jacob Fowler should be the backup. But will they try to get Sam Montembeault going? Or will they send him off on waivers? Habs management did say they plan to go into the regular season with only two goaltenders.

No matter how you try to build the lineup you’re leaving someone off you might not want to. The Habs might end up with one of the stronger press boxes in the league. Do you scratch Kirby Dach? Oliver Kapanen? Alex Texier? Jayden Struble? Arber Xhekaj? Alex Carrier? What if Florian Xhekaj has a great camp and deserves a roster spot?

It’s pretty clear that the club needs to try and package multiple players for one guy who can make a bigger difference.

Also, with the looming entries of Alexander Zharovsky and Michael Hage, the guys who don’t have a set spot like Kirby Dach and Oliver Kapanen have to really make a good argument for themselves.

Focus on Five

I’m going to put a little focus on five players and their situations with the team.

Zachary Bolduc: I was very high on the Canadiens acquiring Bolduc from the St. Louis Blues for Logan Mailloux. He had 19 goals in his rookie year with the Blues. He was only able to score 12 with the Canadiens. He also went from a +20 to a -6. There are some reasons for this. Bolduc was used heavily on the Blues powerplay at the second half of the season. 11 of his 19 goals came in March and April. He was also a +8 in that time. Four of his 12 goals for the Habs came in October. He cooled off after that with a lot of talk being he worked hard in practice but struggled to learn Martin St. Louis’ system.

His play in the playoffs was much better, especially when MSL had him on a line with Kirby Dach and Alex Texier. He has good chemistry with Dach. He had three points in 7 games against Tampa and three against Buffalo. He was a +6 on May 10. His next nine games? A -9.

I think Bolduc now understands what Montreal wants out of him. He needs to be a middle six agitator with a deadly shot. I’d love to see him get more play with Ivan Demidov, but that depends on where Kreider plays.

Oliver Kapanen: Oliver was a season surprise. He wasn’t really expected to crack the lineup in camp and he earned the 2C spot next to Ivan Demidov. Kapanen would score 22 goals and 37 points in his first rookie campaign. His first half was very strong, especially the times Juraj Slafkovsky carried the line. Then came the playoffs. Kapanen lost his roster spot for over half the games and played 7 games with 0 points. He played less than 11 minutes in those games.

It should be said he was scoreless in his last 10 regular season games. It’s like his first rookie season he just ran out of battery juice. So what is Oliver Kapanen in 26-27? He’s the prime candidate to lose his spot to a rookie next year (Hage/Zharovsky) and there’s a lot who think he shouldn’t be tried again on the top line.

I was doubtful on him last season making the team but I also don’t like rooting against a kid after an up and down rookie year. Like Bolduc, I think there’s more there. I honestly wonder about putting Bolduc and Kapanen together as a line and letting them prove people wrong together. I hope he bounces back and proves he can be a different on this squad. Otherwise? He’s going to be another Emil Heineman. Thanks for surprising folks. Off to a new team.

Jacob Fowler: This is the best way to present my opinion on the “goalie debate” on either putting Fowler in the AHL or not:

I’m sorry folks. It’s an 84 game NHL season. The backup is going to play 30+ games. 30+ NHL games is BETTER DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME AN NHL STARTER THAN 60+ AHL GAMES!

Not only that but Jacob Fowler coming in last season helped turn the teams fortunes from out of a playoff spot into a top three team in the Atlantic Division. He deserves his spot on the roster. That’s why he was Dobes backup in the playoffs and not Montembeault.

Monty shouldn’t even be here. This is Fowler’s time. And if he’s every bit as good as I think he is? He outplays Dobes at times this year. Let’s run with both. Options in net is a good thing.

Arber Xhekaj: Listen. I like Arber a lot. I also think his ability to intimidate and be an enforcer is essential. We’re a better team when he can come out and scare the rats. But he also must earn his minutes. He struggles to clear creases without taking penalties. If he could clear creases as well as Kaiden Guhle he would be our permanent #5 defenceman. He doesn’t handle man to man as well as other options. He has a great slap shot and doesn’t use it enough.

This is all on Arber. Stop blaming the coach for not playing him enough. He isn’t giving him enough reason to trust him. Now he’s run out of time. He hasn’t created enough of a gap between him and Struble. Reinbacher and Engstrom could be coming up soon. Guhle is hurt until likely November but once he’s back? It could be hard to get minutes. Arber has to figure this out himself. Make the Habs pay for only giving him a one year deal. Earn a spot on this roster as a serious top six option. Otherwise he might be better off finding a new team.

Should this happen? Habs will definitely need to replace the enforcer qualities he brings. Might cost the team a lot to bring a guy from elsewhere. But you can only wait so long for Arber. I for one hope he finds his game this season. I want the Sheriff here for a long time.

Ivan Demidov: How good will Demidov be this season? Maybe this isn’t as much fun to write about as other players, but it certainly is for me. I thought Ivan really developed as a two way player in the playoffs this year. This was a great rookie campaign for him. He was 2nd for Calder voting with his 62 points. All throughout the year there was a feeling he could be shooting the puck more. I think we see that this year.

I’m expecting a huge year from Ivan. 80 is my base. I think he could do even better with the right linemates. If him and Slafkovsky are back together and they have chemistry with a guy in the middle? He’s going to be a 90+ guy. He will be hitting 100+ in no time. Best Hab forward since Guy Lafleur. That’s his future.

How far can the Habs go?

Last season, Montreal finished third in their division. They beat the Tampa Bay Lightning in a tough seven game series. They then beat the Buffalo Sabres in an equally tough seven game series. After surprising the Carolina Hurricanes in game one, they had no energy remaining and got squashed by the Canes in five.

The loss resembled their first round series with the Washington Capitals in 24-25. This team has a tendency to run out of gas. They spend too much time chasing pucks, blocking shots, and letting teams get set up. Mike Matheson put it best. The Habs struggled against Carolina because they didn’t finish Tampa and Buffalo off earlier.

I of course had to roll my eyes at people saying Montreal was outmuscled by Carolina, just as I did when it was said about the Capitals series. It has nothing to do with size or muscle. It has everything to do with being outcoached and exhausted.

The Canes series featured one of the few times I was absolutely befuddled by Martin St. Louis’ insistence to not touch his lines in four straight losses. That can’t ever happen again. Not even trying the Bolduc – Dach – Texier line from the Tampa series was peculiar.

So how can the Habs change things this time? So far I’ve talked a lot about playoff performance. That’s because I think Montreal is a lock for a top three spot. Even with how hard the Atlantic is? I think Montreal finishes 1, 2, or 3. I don’t think they fall to a wildcard spot. They might win the division.

However, they need to tighten up their man to man defensive strategies. They need to finish teams off faster. Less blocking shots and more stealing pucks to tilt the ice. Less cardiac kid third period miracles. Less overtime wins. Montreal was actually a leader in least giveaways but their takeaways was only 22nd. Who led the league? The Carolina Hurricanes. Montreal led the league in blocked shots. Who was 32nd? The Carolina Hurricanes. Should tell you right there something to fix. Also, total shot attempts? Montreal was 23rd. Number one? Come on, don’t make me type it out.

I do hope Derek Lalonde makes a big difference in the defensive department. St. Louis does need help there. I hope he begins on telling Marty he can’t be playing Lane Hutson as a right defenceman any longer. Left side only.

So far can the Habs go this year? With the addition of Chris Kreider and everyone a year older? Lalonde to hopefully help the defence and penalty kill? Top three division finish and a great chance making the Eastern Conference final again. With some injury luck and maybe a smart addition at the trade deadline (I’m hoping Ryan O’Reilly) I think they can absolutely beat whoever they could play in the ECF and make the Stanley Cup final.

They could also take a small step back and only make it to the first or second round. Atlantic is still a very tough division. Some bad injuries could pull their potential back. Maybe having so many guys unable to figure their place is an issue. While that’s not ideal it isn’t back breaking.

The Canadiens essentially have four to five kicks at the can here before they might start losing core players. You of course want to win, keep winning, and never lose, but those kicks are going to be what develops them into a Cup winner. Hopefully.

Montreal Canadiens fans keep bragging to the league about their great contracts. It doesn’t mean a thing unless they win it all before the 2030s. 26-27, 27-28, 28-29, and 29-30. This is when the window opens. While things don’t shut in 2030, that is likely when the NHL expands to Houston and they will lose a player for that. That’s when Nick Suzuki needs to be extended. That’s when a lot of their original core guys deals come up. It’ll make it much more difficult to keep everyone together at that point.

But we’re just worrying right now about the 26-27 season. Montreal is in a very good position. Games are played on ice not on paper. Puck drop on the regular season begins September 29.

Game on.

Montreal Canadiens Wedding Cupcakes” by clevercupcakes is licensed under CC BY 2.0 .

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