Last year, I wrote the 2025 Off Season in July. The 2026 Off Season I’m writing in September.

I just didn’t feel right about doing that this summer.

This has been an absolutely wild summer for the National Hockey League.

Before Free Agency

We had a few big moves before free agency kicked off. The Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Darren Raddysh from the Tampa Bay Lightning for a fifth round pick. This was a division rival trading one of their top four defencemen to another division rival for very little so they could re-sign them. Raddysh signed an eight year deal worth $8.5 million per season, 8.17% of the cap on contract start. I’ll admit I’ve always liked the Raddysh brothers. I saw them during the Memorial Cup when it was in Windsor, Ontario (covering it back when I used to do that stuff) and I really thought both of them were going to be stars in the NHL. Taylor is a bottom six forward and Darren had a breakout year in Tampa replacing Victor Hedman on the point, and it’s going to be a tough go to see if this was a career building up to it or a flash in the pan season.

We then had the Florida Panthers making room for Brady Tkachuk. The thing we always knew was going to happen would happen. Florida first traded Mackie Samoskevich to the Seattle Kraken for a first and second, then flipped the Tampa first they got in it with two more first rounders and a second to get Brady Tkachuk. A lot of people have talked about this as a game changer for Florida. I honestly feel like the Ottawa Senators will be in a better position without Brady. He was a terrible captain. He’s overrated as a player just because he does well in fantasy pools. Ottawa would later trade for William Eklund of the San Jose Sharks.

Speaking of first rounders being thrown around, Vegas’ first and Colorado’s first along with a New York second all once owned by the Calgary Flames would be sent to New Jersey to acquire Simon Nemec, a former second overall pick whose time in New Jersey always felt limited. He signed a five year deal with Calgary at $7.25 million, 6.97% of the cap on contract start. It’s a lot of money for him but Calgary is a retooling/rebuilding team. He’s for the future when that money won’t seem so much.

Jordan Kyrou, who was the big rumour insiders couldn’t shut up about last summer in going to the Montreal Canadiens, was actually traded to the Washington Capitals. I think the return of Connor McMichael, Milton Gastrin, and a 1st round pick is pretty fair. I also have never been a fan of Kyrou but I hope the best for him in Washington in Alex Ovechkin’s final season.

Bowen Byram went to the Chicago Blackhawks then signed a massive deal, and that should have been the signal to everyone that the salary cap had officially gone up and teams were going to be spending on locking up young players. Byram signed an extension in Chicago for $12.5 million over six years, 11% of the cap on contract start. The analytics guys never liked Byram. Maybe he doesn’t grow into a number one defenceman you can rely on in all situations but he can absolutely be the new Brian Campbell for the Blackhawks. Buffalo would later replace Byram by trading for Olen Zellweger from the Anaheim Ducks.

Other interesting moves before free agency included JJ Peterka, who was just acquired by Utah last year, going to the Boston Bruins for two first round picks. Apparently he didn’t care for the coach there. Pavel Dorofeyev would move from Vegas to New York for two first rounders and a third, essentially replacing Artemi Panarin who went to the Kings at the trade deadline. Mason McTavish, a curiosity to Habs fans all year long, got moved to the St. Louis Blues for two first round picks. Speaking of Montreal, they would finally move on from Brendan Gallagher, trading him to the Vancouver Canucks to finish out his career.

The last interesting move before free agency was the Florida Panthers officially giving up on Sergei Bobrovsky and trading Evan Rodrigues, Jesper Boqvist, and Ben Steeves for Jacob Markstrom and Angus Crookshank. I think this was a terrible trade for the Panthers and likely will be what holds them back from getting back into Cup contention. Maybe I’m crazy but Markstrom hasn’t had a save percentage over .905 since 2021-22, back on the Calgary Flames. He was decent when the Devils went to the playoffs in 24-25 but I don’t think that’s going to be enough. His save percentage has dropped considerably, more than contemporaries. They should have tried the free agency market first.

The July Meltdown

Things began pretty normal. Nico Hischier would re-sign in New Jersey for five years at $11.7 million per season, 10.3% of the cap on contract start. Good fair deal. Rasmus Andersson would get his way and stay in Vegas, 7 years $8.5 million, 8.2% of cap on contract start. Probably the best deal of the summer was Ivan Demidov signing an eight year, $9.15 million contract with Montreal after his rookie season, 8.1% of the cap on contract start. Locking up a kid like that whose going to be one of the best forwards in the league? Perfect.

We got a few surprising signings like Jacob Trouba to the Sharks and Sergei Bobrovsky to the Maple Leafs. San Jose also signed Mason Marchment to some hefty money. The Maple Leafs signed Jack Roslovic, Colton Sissons, Teddy Blueger, and Brandon Duhaime just so new GM John Chayka could prove people liked him enough to talk to him. Anders Lee became a Utah Mammoth after a career with the New York Islanders. Recent Stanley Cup winnner Frederik Anderson would sign a very team friendly one year $1 million contract with the Edmonton Oilers to close out the day.

July 2nd, Montreal extended Jakub Dobes for three years with a contract ending summer of 2030. Funny enough, that might be the summer we get a new expansion team in Houston, so Montreal might not have to protect Dobes in the expansion draft. John Carlson would fill Raddysh’s spot in Tampa with a two year $8.5 million deal. Alex Ovechkin would re-sign for one final year. Pretty normal day.

Then July…. 3rd.

Leo Carlsson would sign an offer sheet with the Philadelphia Flyers. Five years, $18 million per year. 17.3% of the cap on contract start. It was a good move by the Philadelphia Flyers. Would cost them four first round picks. Get a sure thing number one centre. Puts Anaheim in a cap crunch if they match it. This caused an explosion of debates. Let me cut down each debate one by one. First of all, it’s an RFA offer sheet. You have to make it hurt. It ain’t about what’s deserving. It’s about making it so expensive the team decides against matching it and loses the player. Next, how dare Carlsson? Anaheim had plenty of time to get him signed before this happened but Anaheim GM Pat Verbeek, the little ball of hate, likes to fight every player’s agent on their contract negotiations to get their number down. He put himself in this situation. Carlsson’s agent knowing the offer sheet was tendered made one last offer to the Ducks to sign Carlsson at $15 million and they refused. Anaheim would match the offer sheet, but now have little room to sign Cutter Gauthier who is definitely not taking any pay cuts. They are going to have to shed salary, and this is right after them signing AJ Greer to a $4.25 million deal. I think you could have used that money. They got a lot of guys who could possibly be moved to make room for Cutter. Or maybe they trade Cutter.

A lot of people have said the Leo Carlsson contract “ruined the market” but it didn’t. Players have been discussing pay raises for a while. It’s just a couple guys (hi Connor McDavid) kept taking pay cuts and keeping the market feeling low. It was Kirill Kaprizov making $17 million that changed the market. This was also always going to be the summer where a lot of young players would be re-signing big deals. Connor Bedard takes $15 million. Jason Robertson takes $12 million. Macklin Celebrini takes $18.8 million. That was always the plan. It just feels like a lot because the pandemic froze the cap and players had to work within it. Too many of them stupidly took long term deals instead of short term deals to get them into this era.

Wanting Out

This was also a big summer for players wanting out of their current deals and onto new teams. We already talked about Brady Tkachuk. Also requesting trades were Dylan Larkin of Detroit and Connor Hellebuyck of Winnipeg. Quinn Hughes hasn’t requested a trade but he also hasn’t re-signed in Minnesota yet. What do all these guys have in common? Team USA!

So of course that has made people go nuts about American players leaving Canadian markets forgetting DYLAN LARKIN PLAYS FOR DETROIT. It has nothing to do with Team USA guys wanting out of Canada. It has little to do with Canada. It has everything to do with the Team USA guys all likely realizing that staying loyal to a team that isn’t winning is a waste of your career. All the winning they did in 2026 has them recognizing that they need to get winning before they got nothing to show for it.

I wanted to wait and see what happened to Larkin and Hellebuyck before writing this but I couldn’t really keep putting it off. We’re close to puck drop on the season. Here’s my dream scenario: all of them go to Columbus. Yes, the Columbus Blue Jackets. I’ve always liked Columbus and just think they’ve been the victim of terrible management and terrible luck. Ohio deserves a strong hockey market. So lets’ go with Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat (because we know he isn’t staying once Larkin is gone) both going to Columbus and send Adam Fantilli back (Detroit can afford to pay him huge) and add whatever picks and prospects to balance it out. Then move Connor Hellebuyck to Columbus for Jet Greaves and maybe Kirill Marchenko who we all know wants out of Columbus anyway. Terrible trade? Probably (and yes I know Greaves just re-signed there) but I feel like it’s the kind of move that would at least make the Jets feel like they weren’t tanking yet. If Kirill doesn’t re-sign they can flip him as an RFA. Now the Blue Jackets got Larkin, DeBrincat, and Hellebuyck and that should be enough to convince Zach Werenski (who request a trade and then pulled back) to stay long term. Now you got a strong Blue Jackets team full of Team USA guys. There. I solved all the trade request issues. Let me know how much you hate it at notarealemail@nevergonnahearit.com

Heading into the 2026-2027 Season

As per usual, this isn’t the likely wrong predictions. That will come right before puck drop.

I do want to give some early thoughts about how teams look right now before they even step onto the ice and the league in general.

1. I welcome an 84 game schedule. Less exhibition, two more games? I’m all for it. My favourite season as a kid was an 84 game 92-93 season. The extra two games are welcome. I also noticed the NHL is doing less back-to-back’s and more four game weeks. We will have to see how that works with wear and tear on the players.

2. Carolina had a quiet summer for being Cup champions. They lost Andersen and didn’t even try replacing him. Just running with Bussi and Kochetkov. Alexander Nikishin is still unsigned as an RFA. Do you know who they signed that didn’t play for them last season? Juuso Valimaki from Utah, Zachary Sawchenko from the Columbus Blue Jackets farm club, and Pierre-Olivier Joseph from the Vancouver Canucks. How is that it? I just get the feeling GM Eric Tulsky is lying in wait for a big move. Would not be shocked if he ends up with Hellebuyck or DeBrincat at some point this season.

3. I have no idea how the East shakes out this year. Last year I was 100% correct on the wildcard being insane and the Atlantic division being an absolute free for all. I was wrong about Toronto and Florida being playoff teams still but I think most were. All I’ll say is I think Philly and Pittsburgh got really lucky last year and with the Capitals loading up and the Devils probably getting Quinn Hughes at some point I don’t know how lucky Pennsylvania gets this season.

4. This is the final year for Edmonton. I almost got tricked into saying I liked Edmonton and then I took a closer look. Not only are they betting on Mike Babcock but they are betting losing Darnell Nurse, yes overpaid, will help the defence. It’ll probably help in zone but carrying the puck out of said zone? Not sure. Kasperi Kapanen and Vasily Podkolzin on very expensive deals, as well as Jason Dickinson. That’s almost $10 million tied up in three guys who wouldn’t be top guys to take in free agency. You still got Vladimir Tarasenko, Jonathan Drouin, and Michael Bunting on the free agency market. I’d take those three on cheap deals over the three the Oilers signed. I do like getting Freddie Andersen and Devon Levi, but I think it’s too little too late. Oilers crash out this spring and prepare to either trade McDavid or give him one last ride before he signs with probably Toronto because he’s addicted to losing with high expectations. Oh and because I said it last time: Fuck everyone involved in the Kyle Beach scandal who chose the team over the victim.

5. Who are the Dallas Stars? For years they were a favourite of mine. I mean, so was Carolina and the year I start giving up on them they win the Cup. So maybe this bodes well for Dallas. I’ve been proclaiming them the future kings of the west only for them to keep stumbling. I know it’s not their fault Tyler Seguin got hurt and he’s got one more year, which means they could only sign Jason Robertson for a single year until they know what cap room they got next summer. They got a ton of UFA’s. Robertson, Seguin, Steel, Kiviranta, Benn, Myers, and DeSmith. Clearly the future of the team is around Wyatt Johnston, Mikko Rantanen, Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley, and Jake Oettinger. Is it enough? Should they try upgrading somewhere? Thomas Harley can be traded anywhere, maybe they have buyers remorse and move him for a better defenceman? I thought these guys were just on their way to a Cup and now I’m not so sure. Again, don’t be too sad Stars fans. I was low on the Hurricanes last fall too. I just don’t know if I should go all in on Dallas again.

Regular season begins September 29. I will have my 2026-2027 Likely Wrong NHL Predictions right before it. Thanks for reading.

Photo of Leo Carlsson from Wikipedia by Pwinger 4.0 Creation Commons Licence