I last bragged about getting every second round prediction correct. Now I totally bust on the conference final. Pride comes before the fall. Welcome to my Stanley Cup final predictions!

2026 NHL Playoffs Third Round
2026 NHL Playoffs Second Round
2026 NHL Playoffs First Round

I won’t be too hard on myself. I admitted I was being a homer (it’s very popular to be a Homer right now) when I picked the Montreal Canadiens to win. I also think most expected the Colorado Avalanche to make the Stanley Cup final. I don’t think anyone ever would have predicted that the Montreal Canadiens would win more Conference final games than the Colorado Avalanche.

It was a very strange Conference final in various ways.

Third Round Recap

Sigh.

Presidents Trophy Winner Colorado Avalanche versus Pacific Division Winner Vegas Golden Knights

My Prediction: Colorado Avalanche in six games

Result: Vegas Golden Knights in four games

Swept.

I only watched one game from this series. I know Cale Makar was out for game one and game two. Game three I watched the first two periods. In period one, with Makar returning to the Avalanche lineup, the Colorado Avalanche absolutely destroyed the Vegas Golden Knights on home ice. 4-0 lead. Almost ran Carter Hart out of his net. It looked like the Avalanche were back and ready to storm back into this series with reckless abandon.

And then the second period happened.

Credit to Vegas. They have a great defensive system and pretty much every player handles their role well. They protect their zone better than anyone except their future Stanley Cup final opponent. I watched as the Colorado Avalanche proceeded to get nothing near the net and constantly fumble the puck in the Vegas zone. Vegas tied it up in the second. As far as I was concerned the series was over in that second period.

There’s a lot of people talking about another teams failure (I’ll get to that) but the Colorado Avalanche here were absolutely dreadful. I haven’t seen such a strong team go from pure power, depth, and momentum to an absolute wet sock like that. I’ve heard all of the injury claims and yeah I’m sure everyone had their leg blown off and will have to regenerate it in the summer. Happens to every team. That second period was a fireable offence. For head coach Jared Bednar to just watch his team take the foot off the Golden Knights throat and proceed to get pounded into the dirt like that? Unacceptable for who was technically the best NHL team this year.

People were talking about this Avalanche team winning 70 games at one point. When we started 2026, the Avalanche had two regular season losses. They won 30 of 39 games. They finished the year a +99 on goal differential and added Nazem Kadri and Nicholas Roy at the trade deadline. Sure, the Boston Bruins of 22-23 had 65 wins and a +128 goal differential and went out in the first round. Sure, the Tampa Bay Lightning of 18-19 had 62 wins and a +103 goal differential and got SWEPT in the first round. But why do you want to be compared to those teams?

There’s only two ways for this Avalanche team to go. Either they lick their wounds from this loss and win the Stanley Cup next year or this is the beginning of the end of the Nathan MacKinnon era. I don’t see some middle ground where they are merely good. Tampa licked their wounds and won two Cups. Boston essentially closed the book on the previous era and are now just a team avoiding a rebuild they should be probably considering. Colorado? This is either a heavy fall or a powerful rise. I say that because Cale Makar has one year left and if the team falls apart without him in two playoff games? Imagine how this club looks if he walks in free agency next summer.

Oh right, there’s another team to talk about.

I picked the Vegas Golden Knights to win the division. I also picked them to lose the first round. I said they were a weird team making weird decisions. I didn’t care for Rasmus Andersson and I still don’t. I didn’t think Mitch Marner made up for the loss of Alex Pietrangelo. I honestly still don’t. The thing I didn’t consider is maybe it didn’t matter. Maybe Mitch doesn’t make up for the loss of Pietrangelo but it does help the team play in a style that’s hard to beat.

I should also say that part of my first round loss prediction was Vegas didn’t have William Karlsson, who I think is the most underrated player in the NHL today. He’s so much better than he ever gets credit for. His return in the playoffs made the Golden Knights a different team. I truly believe that.

The coaching change to John Tortorella makes for a fun story but the antics of the Golden Knights refusing to talk to media, not shaking hands, all that stuff is just a good villain story. When they won the Cup I said it was good for the league to have a villain. The Golden Knights are absolutely fine with that role. Nobody wants to see them win. While I think they got people on the team I never want to see lift that Stanley Cup? I also think the league is better with someone to root against.

Eastern Conference Winner Carolina Hurricanes versus Montreal Canadiens

My Prediction: Montreal Canadiens in six games

Result: Carolina Hurricanes in five games

The big talk before the series was rest versus rust. Montreal won the first game so resoundingly that people were talking like the series was already over. It was over in five games as Carolina did a gentlemen sweep after.

To anyone not trying to create narratives it’s pretty obvious that the Montreal Canadiens completely ran out of gas and the Carolina Hurricanes play a style you can’t be even a little tired to be able to beat. Montreal would at various times suddenly play great and if they didn’t get the goals would be playing exhausted after.

All of the focus on the shots and the game four and game five disasters ignores the fact Montreal did win the first game and games two and three went to OT. Montreal could have been up 3-0, and in one of the OTs absolutely had several chances to close it out and just didn’t. This series, from the incorrect narratives to the way Montreal went out, reminds me of the Washington series from the previous postseason. In that series? Everyone claimed Montreal was physically dominated. In reality they ran out of gas doing everything possible to make the playoffs. This year they ran out of gas after two extremely tough division series.

That isn’t to say Montreal should have beaten Carolina. Simply it should have been more competitive. There were so many strange decisions by Montreal in this series. Their best line in the first round was Zachary Bolduc and Alexandre Texier on the wing of Kirby Dach. Without that line they don’t beat the Tampa Bay Lightning. What does head coach Martin St. Louis do? He breaks up the line against Buffalo and never puts them back together. You get incredible bottom six chemistry, essentially a fourth line based on even strength minutes, scoring better than any other line on the team, and you break them up permanently? You move Dach to the wing? All to get Joe Veleno in the lineup? JOE VELENO!?

Then you have St. Louis playing Jayden Struble over Arber Xhekaj, which too many look at from the perspective of Struble versus Xhekaj. That’s not what it’s about. It’s that St. Louis is okay playing Xhekaj on the right side so Lane Hutson, the best defenceman and arguably the Canadiens best skater, can play his natural left side. When Struble plays? He plays to the left of Hutson.

Hutson on the left when Xhekaj playing. Montreal won 6-2.

Hutson on Struble’s right when Struble is playing. Montreal lost 4-0.

Going forward the Canadiens have to play for Lane Hutson on the left side. Permanently. I don’t care if that makes it tough as to how you handle the minutes of Guhle, Matheson, Xhekaj, and Struble. David Reinbacher should be up with the team as the right handed third pair which means you get to play three left shot defencemen and three right shot defencemen. Figure out who plays with who, but it’s time to end this silliness.

You can also see the giant hole in the second line centre position, filled in the regular season by Oliver Kapanen who was near unplayable in the playoffs. The team absolutely needs to upgrade from that position.

If it’s up to me? If I was both Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton? My goal would be to have Juraj Slafkovsky and Ivan Demidov as my premier top wingers. That means getting them a centre. Then I would have Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki. They need a new wing. The bottom six would shake out with Bolduc, Newhook, Texier, and Anderson on the wing with Danault and Evans down the middle. This means Kirby Dach, Oliver Kapanen, Brendan Gallagher, and Joe Veleno are out.

Maybe you find that winger for Caufield and Suzuki in trade. You’ll certainly have to find the centre for Slafkovsky and Demidov via trade. I think you find the winger in free agency. Montreal loves to talk about how much players want to play here. I look at Bobby McMann and wonder how he looks with Caufield and Suzuki. Or Mason Marchment. I know a lot of people are looking at Anthony Mantha since he’s a Quebec boy but I’ve always questioned his commitment level. He has been pretty terrible in every playoff game he’s played and has yet to score a goal in the playoffs and is now 31. Mason Marchment also has a reputation for bad playoffs but at least he’s scored a few goals. Bobby McMann has only played a single playoffs, no goals. Sigh. Guess I can’t be so hard on Mantha.

Actually I can. He straight up sucked against Philly.

The bigger question is that second line centre job and I have noticed a lot of Habs fans don’t actually want a second line centre. They don’t want a 50 point guy. They want another first line centre. Robert Thomas, Nico Hischier (who I would ADORE as a Hab), Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, these are the guys people want for the job. None of these guys are second line centres. Second line centres are guys like Dylan Strome, William Karlsson, Logan Stankoven, Brock Nelson, and Sam Bennett. Not 70 point guys. 50 point guys.

I feel that could set people up for disappointment on whomever the Habs eventually bring in as a second line centre for what will be a very inflated price. Whether they try to scoop a young guy struggling like Mason McTavish in Anaheim (benched by Quenneville, 41 points in the regular season after signing a six year deal worth $7 million per season, everyone says he had a horrible playoffs but he had 6 points in 10 games?) or go after say a veteran needing a change of scenery like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (33, three years left, 56 points in the season, 5 in 6 in the playoffs) I think people will end up expressing disappointment in those players. I’d love a guy like Dylan Strome from Washington if he ended up available, but I bet others would see him as a stop gap reactionary move instead of a permanent answer.

If the Canadiens can get a guy like Nico Hischier? I’d be ecstatic. If they end up with a Mason McTavish? I’ll honestly be really happy too. I think he isn’t as bad as he seems. I think last year a lot of people were overrating his size, and there are issues with his skating, so I didn’t want to pay a Cole Caufield like some were claiming to want to do. But if they got him for a package with a high prospect and pick? I’d probably be good with it and think he’d do well here.

Okay… Carolina.

Here is what I said in the second round: “Carolina cruises to the Conference final to play an Atlantic division team that just survived a war. Maybe even two wars.”

I wasn’t wrong.

Carolina is a really good team. I had been picking them for years and they kept letting me down. This time they finally got to the Cup final. There’s a couple additions this year that really make the difference. Go look at their playoff stats. Top scorers? Taylor Hall and Jackson Blake. Hall came in last season as a close to trade deadline move when they traded Mikko Rantanen to the Dallas Stars. Jackson Blake is a sophomore. Now the next two. Logan Stankoven and Nikolaj Ehlers. Stankoven was the main piece in the Mikko Rantanen trade. Ehlers was their big free agency signing.

We can even go down to their sixth best scorer and find K’Andre Miller who they traded for in the offseason.

That’s five of their top six that either came in this season or last season. Additions to the roster that are elevating them to the Cup. The team that was led by Aho, Jarvis, Svechnikov, Staal, and dare I say Slavin? They weren’t good enough to get here. This team needed extra firepower and they’ve got it in the form of a former Hart trophy winner, a little engine that could from Dallas, the son of Jason Blake, a top free agent signing from Winnipeg, and picking the carcass of a sinking New York Rangers squad.

That’s why they beat the Montreal Canadiens. A very good team got greater. They’ve only lost one game this playoffs. They deserve to be in the Cup final.

Stanley Cup Final Prediction

Eastern Conference Winner Carolina Hurricanes versus Western Conference Winner Vegas Golden Knights

I was about to say it a paragraph ago and stopped myself to say it here.

Carolina has only lost one game this playoffs. Do you really expect them to lose four more?

But this is the Vegas Golden Knights. They just swept the best team in the NHL. They absolutely dismantled them. Carolina beat Ottawa, Philly, and Montreal. How much of a step down is that from Utah, Anaheim, and Colorado?

Breaking it down, I would give the goaltending edge to Carolina, the defensive edge to Carolina, the top six edge to Vegas, and the bottom six edge to Vegas. So Vegas gets the nod at forward but Carolina on goaltending and defence. Both teams are extremely good at team defence but I’d give a slight advantage to Carolina. If Carter Hart goes down? Adin Hill might actually be better. If Frederik Andersen goes down, Brandon Bussi had a good rookie year (until he didn’t.)

If Vegas wins this? Mitch Marner probably wins the Conn Smythe trophy. Even though I think it should go to Jack Eichel. If Carolina wins this? Some may say Andersen but I’d go with Logan Stankoven. I love it when the small guys win the Cup. Really defeats the size arguments. They have to move goal posts and start talking about “not playing small” when that was never their original point.

Anyway. I’m delaying my prediction. It’s Carolina. I don’t see them losing this series. I think they are better than Vegas. It’s going to take some incredible coaching by Torts to make me change my mind. I think Carolina is ready for this. They’ve gone through the fire. So many failures and now they finally got a shot to win it. If Vegas wins? Hey, bad guys win. I just give it to the jerks here.

Carolina Hurricanes in six games

It has been a fun playoffs. See you in a few weeks.

“Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers – March 14, 2015” by Dougtone is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 .